Castillo Will Power Mariners Past Rays

Mariners vs. Rays, 6:40 ET

Yet another 1-1 day that got us to a break-even point. Not a big deal to be honest, as I'll always take ending the bankroll with the same amount as I started the day with over losing money. We have a short slate on this Thursday baseball day, but that doesn't mean we can't make some money. I have just one play today and it is in a game between the Mariners and Rays.

Seattle looked like they were headed for an average season just a month ago. Then, all of a sudden, everything seemed to click for the Mariners. They were essentially a .500 team that looked like they were not going to even make the playoffs. Now, they are sitting near the AL West looking to capture the division instead of a Wild Card berth. I have to give them credit as they kept pushing for the playoffs in spite of injuries and the uncertainty of getting past all of the other average teams that still had a chance at the playoffs. One reason for their success is that Luis Castillo, tonight's starter is having a great campaign. This season, Castillo has an 11-7 record and 3.19 ERA for the Mariners. He also is tied for 10th in the Majors with 183 strikeouts and is second in WHIP. He's had a couple of stinker starts since August started, but the Mariners have won all six of the games that he started. In three of them, he has allowed four or more earned runs, the other three he allowed one or fewer, so it has been a bit extreme. He did face Tampa earlier in the year and allowed the Rays to score four earned off of him in six innings, but the Mariners still found a way to win that game.

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 23: Randy Arozarena #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates after hitting a three-run home run in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on September 23, 2022 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The Rays have had a very unique season. They started hotter than any team in history, then struggled near the All-Star Break and have lost their hold on the division. They are still almost certainly going to make the playoffs, but some things - like a 100-win season that seemed certain at one point might even be in question now. They lost their young superstar (probably forever) and lost their Ace to injury. It certainly has been strange for the team, but they are still 30 games over .500. Tonight, in hopes of combating Castillo, Zack Littlell takes the ball. He's been fairly average for the Rays this season. Since August, he has allowed 17 earned runs over 33.2 innings. The numbers are fairly similar to Castillo, but he's allowed at least three earned runs in four of the six outings. The Rays are also just 3-3 in his starts. He did pitch against Castillo last time too, but he was still working more as a reliever. He allowed no hits in his one inning of work.

Castillo isn't quite as good on the road as he is at home, but he is still the better pitcher in this game. I can get the same odds for the full game as I can the first five innings so I'll take the first five play at -130. It is a little juicy, but I do think that you can expect Littell to allow runs in the game, and Castillo has the potential to shut out any team he faces. Take the Mariners moneyline through five.

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