Castillo Can Keep Red Sox Offense Down

Mariners vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

The trade deadline is just hours away at this point and there have been a flurry of moves as teams in contention scramble to find additions to make to the big league club and others add prospects to the minors. This has been a fairly active deadline, and we've seen both some big and little moves. We aren't quite done yet and I expect a lot of names to be on the move today that could reshape this final playoff race. Two teams that have been active, one more than the other, are facing each other today in an important battle for Wild Card standings as the Mariners take on the Red Sox.

The Mariners are sitting at 56-52 coming into today and they've made a couple of nice moves to help their offense which has been one of the worst (I'd say the worst) in the league. The team had the worst batting average in the game and the most strikeouts of any team in the Majors. They have since added Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner to the team. The bad news is that Arozarena left the game last night with some sort of injury and is listed as day-to-day. Turner should give the team some added offensive firepower, as he is hitting .257 for the season. However, he only has six home runs this season, and this is arguably the worst season of his career. Still, if he can keep the average going and hit for some added power, this will be a great addition to the team. For a team that won't have Julio Rodriguez, and Arozarena questionable, Turner may need to carry the load for a while. Luis Castillo will also try to guide the club to victory today as he gets the start. Castillo has once again put together a very respectable campaign. Although his record isn't great at 8-10, he has a 3.38 ERA, 126 strikeouts, and a 1.16 WHIP. All of those numbers are top 35 in the league, with the ERA being 25th. He's been very good in July, allowing just four earned runs over 25.2 innings, good for a 1.40 ERA, and producing four quality starts in four outings. He faced Boston to start the season and was knocked around a bit, allowing four earned runs in five innings. 

Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers hits a double against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Canada. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Boston comes into this game having made significant progress this season and positioning themselves where they can add at the deadline. The team is currently 56-49 for the season, six games back of the Orioles for the division lead, and one game back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox haven't made too many additions on the offensive side of the diamond, but they didn't need it as much as the Mariners. For the season, the Red Sox are hitting .259 and have scored almost 100 more runs than the Mariners. Where the Red Sox did need help was the pitching staff and they addressed that a bit with a trade for James Paxton who starts tonight. Paxton is 8-2 for the season with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The only number that seems to be positive there is the record, and most of that is because he played for the Dodgers. Paxton has made 18 starts on the season and only six of them have been quality starts. He hasn't pitched more than five innings in the past five starts, but has been very good against the Mariners hitters in the past, holding them to three hits in 24 at-bats.

This is hard to imagine that the Mariners have enough offense to get to Paxton even if he isn't pitching well. While I don't have much confidence in Paxton, he should be familiar with pitching in Boston, having spent last season with the Red Sox. Seattle should feel a bit more invigorated by the trades, and has the better pitcher on the mound. I can't support them for a full game, but I do expect Castillo to outduel Paxton. I'll back the Mariners at -130 for the first five innings. 

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