Carolina Panthers' Coach-QB Combo Gives Them Best Value To Win 2023 NFC South
Theoretically, the NFC South is up for grabs in 2023. Entering 2023, it is clearly the worst division in the NFL. This makes the Carolina Panthers' +400 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the NFC South juicy.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South at 8-9 then got blasted 31-14 by the Dallas Cowboys in the 2023 NFC Wild Card game. Tom Brady retired and Bucs coach Todd Bowles starts the season on the proverbial hot-seat.
Everyone else in the NFC South finished 7-10.
Former Buccaneers QB Tom Brady reacts against the Cowboys in the 2023 NFC Wild Card game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)
The New Orleans Saints signed veteran QB Derek Carr to a 4-year $150 million deal this offseason. If their skill-position players stay healthy, the Saints could have a bounce-back year offensively. They are in the 2nd year of the post-Sean Payton era.
New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen might be on the hot-seat as well. Again, the NFC South is very winnable. If Allen can’t win the division with this roster, NOLA’s may go in a different direction.
Saints coach Dennis Allen, owner Gayle Benson, general manager Mickey Loomis and Derek Carr pose for a picture at New Orleans Saints Indoor Practice Facility in Louisiana. (Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
Aside from the Carr signing, the Atlanta Falcons were the NFC South biggest spenders in free agency this offseason. Atlanta’s front office beefed up the defense greatly, adding talent on all three levels.
Notably, the Falcons signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata and S Jessie Bates III. Atlanta 2nd-year coach Arthur Smith is still an unknown. As is 2nd-year, 3rd-round Falcons QB Desmond Ridder who their projected Week 1 starter.
Carolina Panthers 2023 by the odds (DraftKings)
This brings us to the aforementioned Panthers, who, in my humble opinion, have the best value to win the NFC South currently at +400.
Carolina’s +400 odds to win the NFC South has a 20.0% break-even rate. So the question is, “Do the Panthers have a better chance than 20% to win this division?”
The Panthers upgraded their coaching staff and QB situation from last year’s team. In fact, you could argue they have the best coach-QB combo in the NFC South.
Head coach Frank Reich watches QB Bryce Young during the Carolina Panthers minicamp. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Carolina hired Frank Reich as to be new head coach this offseason. Reich was seven games above .500 (40-33-1) in five seasons with the Indianapolis Colts from 2018-22. The Colts had five different starting QBs at the beginning of all five seasons Reich was their head coach.
The Colts won a playoff game in Reich’s 1st year and Andrew Luck’s final year in Indianapolis. After a losing season with QB Jacoby Brissett, the Colts went 11-5 with QB Philip Rivers under center.
PANTHERS HIRE FRANK REICH, WHO INHERITS FAMILIAR QUARTERBACK SITUATION IN CAROLINA
Rivers then retired and Indianapolis traded for QB Carson Wentz, which ended awfully. Wentz and the Colts choked away the AFC South in the final week of the season in 2021.
That put Reich into the hot-seat heading into 2022. Indy tried QB Matt Ryan last season and that failed. Ryan was so bad he pretty much cost Reich his job.
Reich is a former NFL QB and works well with good QBs. If anything, Indianapolis did Reich a favor by firing him. He finally has a franchise QB to build around in Carolina.
Young poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected 1st overall by the Carolina Panthers in the 2023 NFL Draft at Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
The Panthers traded WR D.J. Moore and future draft capital to the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Carolina drafted Alabama QB Bryce Young with the 1st pick and Young is the goods.
Young scored a 98% on the S2 Cognition Test prior to the draft. In Young’s 2021 Heisman-winning season, Alabama's offensive line wasn’t that good. Young was sacked 35 times in 2021 and had to extend plays with his legs.
PANTHERS INCREDIBLY IMPRESSED BY BRYCE YOUNG, NFL INSIDER REPORTS
Alabama won the 2021 SEC Championship before eventually losing to Georgia in the national title game that year. Granted, Young’s supporting cast in Carolina doesn’t index as high in the NFL as his Alabama teams did in college football.
Young and Alabama coach Nick Saban pose with the 2022 Heisman Trophy at the Marriott Marquis in New York City. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
My biggest concern for Young is his small stature. He stands 5’10” and weighs 205 pounds. But, Young is mobile with great pocket awareness and has a live arm. He runs to throw instead of panicking, taking off, and getting crushed by opposing defenders.
If Young is really good we will compare him to Steve Young and Drew Brees. With all due respect to Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Young is the best Alabama QB prospect to be drafted in the Nick Saban era.
What about Carolina's defense?
New Panthers defensive coordinator (DC), Ejiro Evero, is a Vic Fangio disciple. Fangio's two-high-safety scheme is the blueprint for most NFL DC's entering 2023. It takes away the big-play from opposing QBs and forces them to matriculate the ball down the field.
Evero was the Denver Broncos' DC in 2022 and defense was Denver's strength last year. The Broncos were 3rd in yards per play allowed per season and 9th in defensive expected points added per play in a division with two elite QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert).
Furthermore, the Panthers have talent on all three levels of their defense. They have Pro Bowl-caliber players such as DT Derrick Brown, pass rusher Brian Burns, LB Shaq Thompson, and CB Jaycee Horn.
Panthers DE Brian Burns sacks Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Last season, the Panthers were league-average in yards per play and expected points per play allowed. But, they ranked 10th in scoring rate allowed. With a better scheme and an offense that's less turnover-prone ideally, Carolina's defense should be better off in 2023.
Either way, the best argument for the Panthers cashing this bet is the NFC South being the softest division in the NFL. Due to Carolina's division and having four games this season vs. a bad AFC South, the Panthers have an easy schedule.
Per Warren Sharp, Carolina has the 4th-easiest strength of schedule in 2023 based on "Vegas forecasted win totals". The Panthers have the 3rd-biggest shift in terms of strength of schedule from 21st last year to 4th in 2023.
Circling back on the question: "Do the Panthers have better than a 20.0% chance to win the NFC South in 2023?" With Reich at coach, Young under center, and weak competition in the division, Carolina's chances to win the NFC South are at least 33%.
BET: Carolina Panthers win the 2023 NFC South at DraftKings (+400)
Carolina Panthers' odds to win the 2023 NFC South from DraftKings as of Tuesday, July 11th at 12:30 p.m. ET.