Alright, For Real This Time, Carolina Panthers Will Win The NFC South In 2024

NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. With the AFC South and the first three NFC South teams in the books, it's time to preview the Carolina Panthers. 

Call me crazy, but I’m doing it again. I’m picking and BETTING THE PANTHERS to WIN THE NFC SOUTH in 2024. I ignorantly thought they had the best quarterback-coach combo in the division last season and would win the NFC South. Carolina went 2-15 last year on a 7.5-win total and became the NFL's biggest laughingstock. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rusher Yaya Diaby sacks Panthers QB Bryce Young at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

After a 1-10 start, the Panthers fired former head coach Frank Reich, and interim head coach Chris Tabor went 1-5. Clearly, Reich wasn’t "the guy". Hoping to get the most out of QB Bryce Young, Carolina first-year general manager Dan Morgan hired former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Dave Canales as their new head coach this offseason. 

For reasons I'll discuss below, Canales is a great hire as far as Young is concerned. More importantly, the NFC South is the most likely division to have a team go from "worst to first". 

Carolina Panthers 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Aug. 4. The NFC South odds are from DraftKings**. 

• Super Bowl: +30000
• Conference: +10000
• NFC SOUTH: +1100**
• Playoffs: Yes (+520) | No (-800)
• 5.5 Wins: Over (-124) | Under (+102)

Once I read that Canales is a watered-down version of Pete Carroll in the 2024 FTN Football Almanac, I fell in love with this hire. Like Carroll, Canales is a positive dude that players like playing for. He was an assistant strength coach under Carroll at USC in 2009. Canales followed Carroll to the Seattle Seahawks, working in five offensive coaching positions from 2010-22. 

With that in mind, Canales is a QB Whisperer. He was Seattle’s QB coach and pass game coordinator from 2018-22. Russell Wilson made four straight Pro Bowls over that span. Four of Wilson’s top-five seasons by QB Rating were from those years. Then Canales helped rescue Seattle QB Geno Smith’s career. He won the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022. 

Last season, Canales worked his magic again. This time with QB Baker Mayfield as the offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Baker made his first Pro Bowl in 2023 and was third in voting for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Canales did this while being held back by a defensive-minded head coach (Todd Bowles) and Tampa Bay’s terrible offensive line. 

READ: Panthers QB Bryce Young Roasted In Brutal Fashion Over Viral Video

Also, Wilson, Mayfield, and Young have similar physical traits. They are short NFL quarterbacks who need to be moved around the pocket because they cannot see over their offensive lines. Meaning, if anyone can make Young work in the NFL, it’s Canales. 

Furthermore, the Panthers invested on the offensive side of the ball this offseason to give Canales and Young more help. Per Spotrac, Carolina’s front office spent the most in free agency this offseason. The Panthers signed offensive guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to improve their god-awful offensive line. 

Meanwhile, they selected WR Xavier Legette and RB Jonathon Brooks in the first and second rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. Carolina traded a sixth-round pick for Pro Bowl WR Diontae Johnson, who was rotting away in the Pittsburgh Steelers’s trash offense. 

Carolina Panthers 2024 Projection: 10-7 for first in the NFC South

Retaining defensive coordinator (DC) Ejiro Evero could be a good thing. NFL betting analysts complimented Evero's schemes in Carolina last year and while working as the Denver Broncos' DC in 2022. Despite being put in a terrible position by their offense for most possessions, the Panthers were sixth in yards per play allowed on defense in 2023. 

It’s rare for a first-year coach and general manager to keep a coach from the previous staff. But, Canales faced Evero last season when Tampa Bay and Carolina played, and I guess Canales liked what he saw. This contrarian mindset gives me more confidence in Canales. He isn't "set in his ways" and you need to be flexible as an NFL coach. 

Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales is coaching up his guys during OTAs in North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

The Panthers made wholesale changes to its defense, namely trading two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Brian Burns to the New York Giants and allowing last year’s leading tackler, LB Frankie Luvu, to walk in free agency. They signed someone familiar with Evero's system and replaced Burns "in the aggregate" by signing pass rushers Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum. 

Burns is a better player and a two-time Pro Bowler. But, he only had 8.0 sacks in 2023 while Clowney tied a career-high 9.5 sacks with the Baltimore Ravens and Wonnum had a career-high 8.0 sacks for the Minnesota Vikings. Carolina also signed LB Josey Jewell, who was second in tackles for Denver in three of the past four years, including in 2022 with Evero as the DC. 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Carolina Panthers: NFC South winner (+1100) at DraftKings

There are a couple of different season-long future bets for the Panthers I'd approve. My preferred look is "Carolina winning the division". Also, I have a three-team, division-winning parlay with the Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns at +31400 odds. 

Nevertheless, if you think Atlanta will be better, taking Carolina's "Yes to make the playoffs" makes sense. Going Over their 7.5 alternate win total (+270) works as well. Let me be clear: If the Panthers were +600 or lower to win the NFC South, I wouldn't be betting them. 

Carolina Panthers QBs Bryce Young and Andy Dalton praticing during training camp. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

Although, the Buccaneers are due for regression after punching above their weight last season, the Falcons are overrated, and New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr and head coach Dennis Allen are perennial underachievers. Again, I might be crazy, but I've quietly held onto all my "Bryce Young stock". 

Remember, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence looked like a bust after his rookie season. Then Jacksonville hired head coach Doug Pederson in 2022, won the AFC South and a playoff game, and Lawrence made the Pro Bowl. Maybe that won't happen here. But, +1100 (down to +800) is good enough to take a shot at Carolina winning the NFC South. 

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