Cardinals Will Upset Dodgers, Kershaw In LA Saturday

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I've whiffed betting on the St. Louis Cardinals (10-17) in like three consecutive games. They visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (14-13) Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Dodger Stadium.

St. Louis sends out LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 3.81 ERA) to counter Kershaw. After winning his 1st two starts, Montgomery has lost three consecutive starts. But, he only has one bad outing between two "quality starts".

Cardinals lefty starter Jordan Montgomery walks off the field after getting roughed up by the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium.

Cardinals lefty starter Jordan Montgomery walks off the field after getting roughed up by the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium. (Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Network)

I haven't faired well with fading all-time Dodger great, LHP Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 2.32 ERA), either. Kershaw has won three straight starts. But, I'm a sucker and am stepping into it again Saturday.

My rationale for backing the Cardinals yet again actually has little to do with Kershaw. Instead, I'm focusing on St. Louis's edge in relief pitching and the sketchy line movement of lack thereof.

Cardinals at Dodgers (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for the Cardinals at Dodgers Saturday, April 29th from DraftKings.

Betting odds for the Cardinals at Dodgers Saturday, April 29th from DraftKings.

Okay, I kind of lied about "not fading Kershaw". Only because St. Louis's lineup lights up lefties. The Cardinals are tied for 1st in wRC+ (154) and lead MLB in wOBA (.399) and hard-hit rate (45.5%) vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

The Dodgers on the other hand rank 26th in wRC+ (77), 27th in wOBA (.282), and 18th in hard-hit rate (29.8%) against lefties. But, relief pitching is more important nowadays than starting pitching.

Cardinals C Willson Contreras bats against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California.

Cardinals C Willson Contreras bats against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

St. Louis's bullpen is 3rd in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), which is much more predictive than ERA, and 1st in K-BB%. Whereas LAD's bullpen ranks 18th in K-BB% and 22nd in FIP.

Finally, roughly 85% of the action at DraftKings is on the Dodgers yet the line is moving toward St. Louis. LAD's moneyline opened around -155 and has been lowered down to the current number. That's suspicious, right?

BET: Cardinals (+125) moneyline, down to +115

St. Louis's moneyline odds vs. LAD Saturday from DraftKings as of 2:45 p.m. ET.

St. Louis's moneyline odds vs. LAD Saturday from DraftKings as of 2:45 p.m. ET.