Cardinals Will Spoil Lopez's Opening Day Start

Twins vs. Cardinals, 4:15 ET

The grass is cut, the sand is wet, and the lines are chalked. Let's plays some freaking baseball! Opening Day starts tomorrow my friends and with the NCAA Tournament going on, this is where we will start with baseball for the season. I suppose we've already started actually and we went 1-1 in the Japan series between the Dodgers and the Cubs. Now we are going to take on the game between the Twins and the Cardinals for the kick off of the 162-game, however-many-days, 2025 MLB Season.

Minnesota and I don't have a great relationship. When I thought they would be bad, they were actually pretty good. When I thought they would win the division last year, they didn't even make the playoffs. I guess I just can't get a good read on them. The reality is that the team really isn't that great and hasn't been great for a number of years. I think the main difference is that Kansas City and Detroit became good last season and Minnesota didn't do much to improve from the previous year. I hate to break it to those living in the Twin Cities… the Twins really didn't do that much this year in an effort to improve the club. Sure they still have Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, but what else does the team really have going for it? This afternoon they will start Pablo Lopez, a guy that had some Cy Young hype a few times, but is really more of a #2 or really good #3 in a rotation than a true ace. Last year, Lopez went 15-10 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Those were some of the highest numbers of his career, but he did also have the second most amount of strikeouts ever as well. He wasn't very good on the road against last season, sporting a 4.50 ERA. He did face the Cardinals once last season and threw a gem of a seven-inning, four-hit game.

Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez pitches during Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Cardinals have also had a couple of down years. As a Cubs fan, I love to see it. But, I also have a lot of respect for the St. Louis franchise because more often than not, they are fielding a winner. Still, the past two years have been pretty ugly with not much to show for any investment they put together. Last offseason they tried to rebuild the rotation, figuring that was the issue. This year, they didn't tinker much, but let Paul Goldschmidt, who had an uncharacteristically bad year, walk. The Cardinals didn't really make any moves this offseason. They should potentially benefit from Willson Contreras back in the lineup everyday after injuries took him out last year. Masyn Winn has gotten some hype at shortstop, and Nolan Arenado still has gas left in the tank. Today, Sonny Gray will take to the hill looking to get his team off to a good start. He was solid for the Cardinals last year with a 13-9 record, 3.84 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He was even better when on the home rubber though, with a 2.79 home ERA. 

To be clear, these numbers are obviously from last year and a lot can change. Splits tend to change year to year, but with certain guys it feels like you can rely on them a bit. Sonny Gray, to me, is one of the guys you can rely on. 2021 was the last time he was a better pitcher on the road than at home. Lopez is also a guy I like to fade. I think the market likes him much more than I do. I'm backing Gray and the Cardinals to win through five. I would be surprised if either of these starters factor in the final decision of the game so that's why I prefer the first five bet. 

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