Cardinals, Padres Must Come Through In MLB Wednesday Bets Or I'm Tapping
If football weren't months away, I would've thrown in the towel on this MLB betting season. My record fell to 51-53 after losing both bets Sunday and my MLB bankroll has dropped -5.65 units (u) this season.
It sucks because I used to count on the MLB come summer time to build up my bankroll for college football and the NFL. Not anymore though, apparently. At this point, I'd be happy to enter the All-Star break even.
Instead of sitting here whining, I'll give another go with ...
MLB Wednesday Wagers
San Diego Padres (37-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (36-42)
Betting odds for the Padres vs. Pirates in MLB Wednesday, June 28 from DraftKings.
The Pirates won the 3-game series opener 9-4 Tuesday. Padres RHP Yu Darvish was a late scratch Tuesday and Pittsburgh's lineup raked his replacement, RHP Reiss Knehr, for 5 ER in just 2 innings.
San Diego gives red-hot LHP Blake Snell (4-6, 3.22 ERA) the start Wednesday to face Pittsburgh RHP Mitch Keller (8-3, 3.45 ERA). Don't be fooled by Snell's losing record, he's been on fire lately.
Snell has five straight "quality starts" (6 or more IP with 3 or fewer ER allowed) and has a 50/9 K/BB rate over that span with just 1 HR given up. Per FanGraphs', Snell is the highest power-ranked starter in MLB over the last two weeks.
Padres LHP Blake Snell throws vs. the Rockies in the 1st inning at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Since the beginning of last season, the Padres are 4-1 straight up (SU) and run line (RL) as road favorites with Snell on the bump. San Diego has a +42.3% RL return on investment (ROI) in those games.
The Padres have a three-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting. San Diego's lineup has the 3rd-best WAR in MLB over the last week and Pittsburgh's the 3rd-worst, per FanGraphs. The Padres' bullpen is 3rd in ERA, the Pirates' bullpen is 24th.
Finally, the bets are nearly split between San Diego's and Pittsburgh's RLs at DraftKings, according to VSIN. But, there's a lot more cash on the Padres -1.5 (+105). Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public in sports betting.
MLB BET #1: 1u on Padres -1.5 (+105) RL at DraftKings
Houston Astros (42-37) at St. Louis Cardinals (33-45)
Betting odds fro the Astros vs. Cardinals in MLB Wednesday from DraftKings.
The Cardinals beat the Astros 4-2 Tuesday in their series opener. St. Louis put up all four runs on Houston's ace, Framber Valdez, and Cardinals lefty starter Jordan Montgomery threw 6.2 innings with just 1 ER.
St. Louis turns to RHP Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.23 ERA) Wednesday and Houston gives RHP Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.25 ERA) the nod. The 1st thing that jumps out is the Cardinals being a favorite vs. one of the best starters in MLB.
Javier ranks 34th in FanGraphs' power rating for MLB starters. He has one of the most effective 4-seam fastballs in baseball and his hard-hit rate is 3.3% lower than the MLB average.
Furthermore, since 2021, the Cardinals are 4-1 SU as home favorites vs. teams with a winning record with Mikolas on the mound. St. Louis has a +41.2% moneyline (ML) ROI in those spots.
St. Louis RHP Miles Mikolas pitches in the 1st inning vs. the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, there is "reverse line movement" in the betting market. Per VSIN, more than 85% of the cash at DraftKings is on the Astros at the time of writing. The Cardinals' ML opened at roughly even-money and now sits at -120.
Lastly, St. Louis's lineup is more productive against righties. The Cardinals out-rank the Astros vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (108-97), wOBA (.326-.309), ISO (.175-.152), and hard-hit rate (36.2-30.1%), according to FanGraphs.