Capitals Will Beat Struggling Stars

Stars vs. Capitals, 8:00 ET

I got one! I finally got one! I mentioned in my article yesterday that it might be a good idea to fade me, and one win doesn't take me out of a slump, but I have to say I'm pretty happy that I got the victory. Even in the last sentence, I put a message that said to feel free to fade but I thought the Oilers would be a winner. One thing you cannot lose as a sports bettor - no matter how much you lose financially - is confidence. You have to keep firing. Tonight, we fire away on a game between the Stars and Capitals.

I feel like I've written a lot about the Stars lately. Maybe it is because they are playing in more of the popular games, or just because they are one of the better teams in the league. I won't say I've had a great read on them because of some of the games. In fact, I have a losing record on games with them involved, but I think this game will be different. The Stars are playing their third straight road game tonight and also their third game in four nights. After manhandling the Lightning in their most recent home game (8-1), they have left their defense at home. They've allowed nine goals in their past two games. They were shut out in one and scored four in the other. The Stars remain one of the more dominant teams against the Power Play. On the season they are allowing goals on just 12.3% of opponent's Power Play attempts. The Capitals really struggle to get offense going during the Power Play, having scored just 7.8% of the time. Tonight, I am expecting Scott Wedgewood to be in the net for the Stars. He has a nice record overall at 4-1-1 and a .911 save percentage.

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 15: A detailed view of the NHL logo on the net before the game between the Washington Capitals and the Dallas Stars at Capital One Arena on December 15, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

I mentioned Washington's struggles on the Power Play offense, but they are struggling to score overall on the season. They have an average of just 2.27 goals per game and are averaging just about 28 shots per game. Over the last five games, they are 2-3, but they have only scored nine goals. Take out their one 5-4 victory they had over the Ducks and they are at just four goals over four games. Their defense, one of their better aspects this season, has slipped a bit over the past three games. They've allowed 14 goals over the past three games. All of those games were on the West Coast and now they've returned home where they have a 7-4-1 record. They also have the rest advantage over the Stars. Neither team is in good form at the moment, which might benefit the Capitals more in this contest - a team in good form would have a good edge over them. I am expecting them to put Charlie Lindgren in the goal tonight. He's been very good this season with a 2.46 goals against per game average and a .928 save percentage going for him. The way the Stars are playing, it should be hard to get a bunch of goals past him.

I think the Capitals win this game at +114. Their goalie might be the better one of the two in this game. And, despite them not being good offensively, the Stars aren't at the top of their game right now. Plus, the Stars are probably tired at this point. I am going to back the Capitals in this one. I'd be a bit surprised if the score goes over six in this game as well, but I think the safer play is to just take the Capitals.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024