Buying Low On The Cleveland Browns Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars In NFL Week 2

NFL talking heads always say "Don't overreact to Week 1 results", then immediately overreact. Well, I'm going to practice what they preach and bet the Cleveland Browns (0-1) to cover the spread vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at EverBank Stadium Sunday in Week 2. 

Even though they lost 20-17 to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Jaguars jumped six spots from 15th to ninth in the betting market power ratings, per Inpredictable.com. So, the market is grading Jacksonville’s Week 1 loss as a "moral victory", and since when is that a thing in the NFL? Sure, the Jaguars covered as +3.5 underdogs in Miami on Sunday. 

However, if you watched that game, which I did since I took the points with Jacksonville, you would’ve seen sloppiness from the Jaguars. For instance, Jacksonville WR Christian Kirk dropped two passes 20+ yards down the field and RB Travis Etienne fumbled as he was about to cross the goal line. 

Miami Dolphins S Jevon Holland strips the ball from Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Jim Rassol-Imagn Images)

You can say, "Well, that stuff is random, and the Browns can’t count on those errors from the Jaguars in Week 2". But, last season, Jacksonville turned the ball over 30 times (ranked 28th) and dropped a ton of deep passes. Hence, "sloppiness" is a consistent thing with the Jaguars. 

Also, no one wants anything to do with the Browns after they got throttled at home, 33-17, by the Cowboys in Week 1. People think Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is cooked and they could be right. What's even worse is another sexual harassment lawsuit has been filed against Watson in Houston. 

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars Week 2 Odds (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: Cleveland (+150) | Jacksonville (-178)
• Spread: BROWNS +3.5 (-120) | Jaguars -3.5 (-102)
• Total — 41.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Last week, Watson completed 24-of-45 passes for 169 yards with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and the fourth-worst QB Rating (51.1) of Week 1. Aka, "terrible". That said, he only committed one "turnover-worthy play" vs. the Cowboys, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), so he was a little unlucky. 

I know that sounds ridiculous because Watson looked like a "chicken with his head cut off" Sunday. Nevertheless, let’s give some credit to Dallas’s defense. Cowboys all-world defender Micah Parsons destroyed Cleveland’s banged-up offensive line, sacking Watson once and batting a pass that led to an interception. 

Dallas hired defensive coordinator (DC) Mike Zimmer this offseason, who’s one of the most well-respected defensive minds in football. Zimmer’s defenses ranked 11th or better in points allowed in six of his first eight seasons as head coach of the Minnesota Vikings from 2014-21. 

Minnesota hired Zimmer because the Bengals were top-10 in points allowed in four of his final five seasons as Cincinnati’s DC from 2009-13. My point is that just because Cleveland got mopped by a Dallas defense with three All-Pros in Week 1 doesn’t mean the Browns are completely cooked. 

Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson escapes the pocket in an NFL Week 1 game against the Dallas Cowboys at Huntington Bank Field in Ohio. (Jeff Lange/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Furthermore, the cavalry is coming to Cleveland, hopefully as early as Week 2. The Browns were missing both starting tackles Sunday, Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, and Dallas's pass rush was in Watson's face all game. Conklin practiced all week and Wills practiced two of the three days. If those guys return in Week 2, Cleveland's offense will improve. 

Conversely, the Browns should dominate Jacksonville's offensive line. Cleveland's defensive line has the biggest edge in pass rush for Week 2 and the fourth-biggest edge in run stopping, according to PFF. All five of the Jaguars' offensive line starters had a below-replacement-level grade against the Dolphins last week. 

Ultimately, my bet on Cleveland +3.5 over Jacksonville Sunday is fading overreactions from Week 1. During the summer, DraftKings opened the Jaguars as -1 favorites vs. the Browns. As a result of Jacksonville’s aforementioned "moral victory" in Miami and Cleveland’s a** whooping by Dallas in Week 1, the Jaguars are now -3.5, which is a "key number" in NFL betting. 

Prediction: Browns 24, Jaguars 20 

• Cleveland will be one of my Circa Million VI picks if this spread is +3.5 or higher when the contest lines come out Thursday.

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