'Buy-Low' On Seattle Seahawks, 'Sell-High' On Atlanta Falcons In NFL Week 7
Because the NFL is so random, I look for reasons to bet on teams coming off of losses and fade teams after wins. The Seattle Seahawks (3-3) have lost three consecutive games, straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), entering their NFL Week 7 meeting with the Atlanta Falcons (4-2) Sunday.
The Falcons have won four of its past five games, including three in a row. Two of those four Atlanta’s wins were primetime thrillers: 22-21 over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2 and 36-30 in overtime vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago.
Carolina Panthers LB Claudin Cherelus pressures Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. (Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off of a mini-bye; Seattle’s Week 6 game was a 36-24 loss at home to the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. First-year Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is someone many sharp NFL bettors raved about in the preseason.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) at DraftKings
As the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator last season, Macdonald developed specific game plans for different opponents weekly. With extended preparation time, I’m confident Seattle’s defense will have a bounce-back performance after three awful games.
The Seahawks lost to the Detroit Lions 42-29 on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and 29 to the New York Giants two weeks ago. Granted, the Giants going up and down the field without rookie WR Malik Nabers is a bad look. However, I won’t penalize the Seahawks too much for getting gashed by Detroit and San Francisco.
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Seattle’s front seven was ravaged by injuries heading into their game against the Lions. Teams are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) the week after playing Detroit this season. Those teams are losing by an average of 21.8 points per game. Plus, Week 6 vs. San Francisco was a tough spot for a Seattle team playing its third game in 11 days.
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith looks to pass vs. the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field in NFL Week 6. (Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images)
Seahawks QB Geno Smith attempts more passes than any quarterback in the NFL. Last week, I hated how one-dimensional they are, but it works in this matchup because Atlanta has the NFL’s worst sack rate and opponent’s completion rate. Smith will have all day in the pocket and can get the ball to his elite weapons, such as WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Also, the Seahawks are victims of bad turnover luck, which is random and tends to revert to the mean. Yet, if you remove turnovers, they are ninth in early-down success rate. "Early-down success" is predictive since the whole playbook is available on first and second downs. Seattle has a +24 first-down margin while Atlanta is -4 in first-downs gained.
Finally, the sportsbooks are begging for Atlanta money, and/or the market knows these teams are nearly equal on a neutral field. As of Friday afternoon, Pregame.com says almost two-thirds of the action is on the Falcons. But, this line is still at a "soft -3", and not going to -3.5. Considering Seattle’s three-game losing skid, wouldn’t you agree that’s suspicious?
Prediction: Seahawks 29, Falcons 23
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