Buy-Low On The Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Arizona Cardinals In NFL Week 5
If someone told you in the preseason the Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) would only be field goal favorite at the Arizona Cardinals (1-3) in NFL Week 5, you'd assume Joe Burrow wasn't playing. He injured his calf during training camp this summer. Burrow is obviously not a 100% but he's going to play Sunday.
Last week, the Bengals got throat-punched by the Tennessee Titans 27-3. It was ugly. They lost time of possession by roughly 10 minutes, yards per play 6.5-4.1 and 1st downs 23-14. In fact, Cincy has been one of the worst teams in the NFL through the 1st four weeks.
The Bengals got crushed in their season opener 24-3 by the Cleveland Browns. In Week 2, Cincinnati lost to the Baltimore Ravens missing at least five starters. The LA Rams outplayed the Bengals in their only win of the season, 19-16 in Week 3.
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But, there has been an overcorrection on Cincy and this game. The Bengals were -7 on vs. Arizona on the lookahead line. After a couple of good games from the Cardinals as well, the market has upgraded Arizona two points and downgraded Cincinnati two points.
Bengals at Cardinals odds in Week 5 (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 5 at PointsBet.
I'm not going to hate on the Cardinals' 28-16 home win vs. the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Even though Dallas was banged-up, it was a quality win. However, Arizona's covers vs. the Washington Commanders in Week 1 and New York Giants in Week 2 aren't very impressive.
Commanders QB Sam Howell was starting his 2nd game ever in Week 1 and the Cardinals lost 20-16. Then the garbage Giants rallied back 20-point 1st-half deficit to beat Arizona 31-28.
Because of the weak 4 p.m. ET Sunday window, a lot of people saw the Cardinals lose 35-16 at the San Francisco 49ers last week. Arizona was covering that game for three quarters before losing the 4th quarter 14-0.
49ers QB Brock Purdy throws a pass against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
That said, San Francisco scored 5 TDs in six "true" drives and Niners QB Brock Purdy had one of the best games in NFL history. Look it up. Purdy's numbers and efficiency vs. the Cardinals were insane. Plus, the 49ers did cover as -14 favorites.
Maybe I'm talking myself in circles but my point is Arizona's resume isn't that good. Washington sucks. New York sucks. The Dallas Cowboys is a good win and the Niners blasted the Cardinals.
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This could be a get-right spot for Cincinnati's offense. Arizona is 29th in yards per play allowed and expected points added per play on defense. Remember, NYG only scored 15 points in their other three games and 31 in the 2nd-half vs. the Cardinals.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow drops back to pass against the LA Rams at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Bengals NEED to get off the mat in Week 5. Their season is on the line. Cincinnati already lost two division games. If the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Ravens on Sunday, every team in the NFC North will have a winning record except Cincy.
Also, NFL defenses are going to catch up to Arizona QB Josh Dobbs. He was drafted in 2018 and Dobbs started his 1st NFL game in Week 16 last year for the Titans. There's a reason for that and I'm betting on Dobbs regressing eventually.
Finally, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the best defensive guys in the NFL. I trust Anarumo will slow down Dobbs. Even if Burrow and Co. struggles again in Week 5, Cincy's defense can win this game.