'Buy Low' On Seahawks When They Visit Cowboys For Thursday Night Football In Week 13
Another way to look at betting the NFL is "football day trading". Teams are basically companies and their odds are stock prices. Well, Week 13 is a "sell-high" spot for the Dallas Cowboys (8-3) hosting a Seattle Seahawks (6-5) squad at its "market low".
Dallas is trading for as high as -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM the morning of its Thursday Night Football game vs. Seattle. The Cowboys have been double-digit favorites in four games this season but those were against god-awful teams.
Dallas Cowboys CB DaRon Bland and QB Dak Prescott eat turkey legs following the game vs. the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
Both teams played on Thanksgiving in Week 12. Dallas walloped the lowly Washington Commanders 45-10 last week and Seattle got steam-rolled by the San Francisco 49ers 31-13 as +7 underdogs.
Seattle visits San Francisco next week and the Niners are -10.5 on the lookahead line. This is the 1st example of Dallas's shares being too pricey this week. I.e. the Cowboys are NOT 1.5 points worse than the 49ers.
Jerry Jones himself would admit San Francisco is more than 1.5 points better than Dallas on a neutral-field. The Niners beat the Cowboys 19-12 in the playoffs last season and truck-sticked Dallas 42-10 in October.
San Francisco 49ers defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa sack Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Michael Zagaris/Getty Images)
With that in mind, who have the Cowboys beaten? Their best win this season is against one of the Los Angeles football teams both of whom have losing records. Per Aaron Schatz's "DVOA", Dallas has played the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Also, the Cowboys no-showing in big games has been a thing since the 90s. That trend has continued in the McCarthy Era. Since hiring head coach Mike McCarthy in 2020, Dallas is 8-14 straight up and 9-13 against the spread vs. playoff teams.
LISTEN OutKick Bets Podcast: NFL Week 13 Betting Syllabus FT. Dan Z. & Scott Martin
I don't love the Seahawks and I've faded them a couple of times recently. Yet, Seattle was a playoff team last season and currently the 6-seed in the NFC. Plus, this is the most points sportsbooks have given the Seahawks in a game this season.
For all their faults, at least the Seahawks went on the road to upset the Detroit Lions 37-31 in overtime. The Lions could beat the Cowboys if they meet in the playoffs. In fact, I put Detroit and Dallas in the same tier.
Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett catches a touchdown pass on Lions CB Jerry Jacobs at Ford Field in Detroit. (Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Seattle also beat the Cleveland Browns who, when healthy, have the best defense in the NFL. Granted, Cleveland backup QB P.J. Walker started vs. Seattle. However, Walker started for the Browns in their back-to-back wins over the 49ers and on the road against the Indianapolis Colts.
Furthermore, the Seahawks have a higher net early-down success rate (minus turnovers) than the Cowboys. "Early-down success rate" is a predictive metric since the whole playbook is available.
Seattle's biggest weakness is converting in high-leverage situations. The Seahawks are terrible on 3rd-down and in the red zone. But, 3rd-down and red-zone success can be random or flukey. The volatility of those stats are symbolic of day trading.
A friend, and FOX News' financial analyst, Scott Martin talks about "mean reversion" when making his picks on my OutKick Bets Podcast. Regardless, I'm essentially gambling on mean reversion for Seattle Thursday in those highly variant situations.
Or Dallas choking. Both are possible.