Butler Is In Trouble Wednesday When It Hosts #7 St. John's

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People complain when someone says "my" or "we" while discussing their favorite sports team. Well, considering I spent $125,000+ on my St. John's University diploma, I'm counting myself as part of the team. So, MY #7 St. John's Red Storm (24-4, 15-2 Big East) visit the Butler Bulldogs (13-14, 6-10 Big East) for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off at Hinkle Fieldhouse Wednesday. 

St. John's failed to cover the spread as -11.5 favorites at home in its 70-62 win over Butler at home last month. At BetMGM, the Johnnies are -6.5 road favorites (-110) on a 150.5-point total (the Over and Under are -110) for their rematch vs. the Bulldogs. Usually, it's wise to fade a ranked team on the road in conference play. But, not Wednesday vs. MY Johnnies. 

RELATED: Watch St. John's Choke Away -11.5 Cover With A Gross Blown Dunk In Final Seconds

First of all, St. John's plays better on the road. According to Erik Haslam, the Johnnies are ninth nationally out of 363 D1 programs in "Away/Home Court" efficiency. They are 6-2 straight up (SU) with a +11.5 scoring margin and 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road in Big East games. Whereas Butler is 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS at home in conference play. 

St. John's Red Storm PG Deivon Smith drives past the Butler Bulldogs at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York. (Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

St. John's Red Storm PG Deivon Smith drives past the Butler Bulldogs at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York. (Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

Also, the Red Storm cruised past the Bulldogs last month despite shooting 1-for-21 from behind the arc, which is almost impossible to duplicate. Granted, St. John's is 335th in 3-point percentage this year. Yet, the Johnnies get good looks from 3-point range because they have a few kids who can beat most defenders off the dribble. 

READ: Rick Pitino's Interview Convinced Me To Bet St. John's Winning 2025 National Championship

Plus, St. John's has a massive edge over Butler in the "battle for possessions." For instance, the Red Storm attempt nearly eight more shots per game and 2.5 more free throws per game. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, average 10.0 fewer field goals per game than their opponents. Butler would need to shoot the lights out to overcome that discrepancy. 

Look, this is a chalky bet because more than 80% of the action is on St. John's at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. However, it would take an epic let-down game by the Johnnies for the Bulldogs to keep this one close, and I don't see Rick Pitino and Co. allowing that to happen. St. John's is a buzzsaw right now and Butler will be OUR latest victim Wednesday. 

Prediction: St. John's 82, Butler 66

  • I'm risking 1.1 units (u) on the Johnnies -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM to profit 1u. Another way to attack this matchup is to bet BUTLER'S TEAM TOTAL UNDER 71.5 POINTS. St. John's has allowed only eight opponents to score 72+ points, and the Bulldogs are 290th in offensive pace, according to Ken Pom.  

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