Build The Bankroll With 3 NBA Friday 'Locks'
Given all the action I have on college football and the NFL this weekend, I kind of need a winning night in the NBA Friday. There are only six games in the Association Friday but I found three bets worth giving out publicly.
NBA Friday 'Locks'
UNDER 216.5 in Knicks-Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Styles make fights and this Knicks-Raptors meeting as all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The crew chief for this game is James Williams who is 4-9 Over/Under this season. New York is 3rd in defensive FT/FGA rate and Toronto is 5th. Hence there won't be a lot of freebies.
Also, the Knicks play the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA. Since NYK ranks 4th in offensive turnover rate, they will be able to dictate the flow of this game. Both teams are top-10 in defensive rebounding rate so there should be a lot of "one-and-done possessions".
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson drives to the cup on the Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Plus, both are lousy shooting teams and each have top-10 defensive ratings. The Raptors are 26th in true shooting rate and the Knicks are 27th. True shooting percentage accounts for field goal, 3-point and free-throw shooting rates.
Finally, New York scores 2.5 fewer points per game (PPG) on the road and Toronto allows 7.3 fewer PPG at home. Essentially, this game just feels like a rock-fight.
My prediction: Knicks 107, Raptors 104
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
As of 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, Sixers big Joel Embiid is "questionable" for Friday. If Embiid plays, Boston's spread will drop to -4 or -4.5. But, if Embiid is out, the Sixers will be getting upwards of +9 to +10.
I'm backing the Celtics at home regardless of Embiid's status. They are 8-0 straight up (SU) and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) at home with a +19.0 scoring margin this season. Boston is shooting 50.1% from the field and 39.9% from behind the arc at home.
Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum goes to the rack on 76ers big Joel Embiid at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
We know what we are getting from Celtics All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum is going to score around 30 points and Brown will chip 22-25, home and away. However, Tatum and Brown’s supporting cast balls at home.
Typically, role players perform better at home in the NBA. Celtics PG Jrue Holiday’s offensive rating goes from 103 on the road to 123 in Boston and SG Derrick White shoots 42.5% from behind the arc at home compared to 35.7% on the road.
My prediction: Celtics 119, Sixers 108
Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
After Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic was ruled out, they went from -10.5 favorites on the lookahead line to -6.5 as of 3 p.m. ET Friday. If this were a season-ending injury, I'd heavily downgrade Dallas in my power rankings.
But, against this trash Grizzlies team, the Mavericks will be just fine. Believe it or not, Dallas scores 3.6 MORE points per 100 possessions than their foes when Luka off the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Furthermore, Kyrie Irving can light up a Memphis backcourt featuring old man Derrick Rose and SG Desmond Bane. Over his past five games, Kyrie is averaging 28.6 PPG on 48.2% shooting.
Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving shoots a floater over Houston Rockets PF Jabari Smith Jr. during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
Earlier this season, the Mavericks housed the Grizzlies 125-110 in Memphis. Granted, Doncic played that night. But, Irving sat out and the Grizzlies were much healthier then. Friday,
Lastly, Dallas thrives from behind the arc and Memphis's defense allows the most 3-pointers per game. Without Luka slowing down the offense, it's going to be bombs away from three for the Mavericks.