Can The Miami Dolphins End Their Buffalo Bills Curse On Thursday Night Football In Week 2?

I’m putting my eight-game Thursday Night Football winning streak on the line in this Buffalo Bills (1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-0) meeting in Week 2. In 2023, I went 7-0 on Thursdays and 3-0 in my three bets for last week’s NFL Kickoff Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. 

In Week 1, Buffalo beat the Arizona Cardinals 34-28 and Miami beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17. The Bills and Dolphins were both at home and failed to cover the spread by a half-point. This summer, DraftKings made Miami a -1 favorite in its opener for Bills-Dolphins. Now, Miami is a -2.5 favorite. 

Simply put, that’s a big enough adjustment given Buffalo’s injuries and roster turnover. That spread was posted before Bills All-Pro LB Matt Milano tore his bicep in August. Also, Buffalo’s best cornerback, Taron Johnson, got hurt in Week 1 and will miss Thursday. 

Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane carries the ball vs. the Jacksonville at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

Granted, Miami has already ruled out RB Raheem Mostert and RB De’Von Achane as a "game-time decision." But, the Dolphins should be alright if both miss. Fantasy football analysts have talked about drafting Miami rookie RB Jaylen Wright as a "handcuff." Plus, Dolphins RB Jeff Wilson Jr. is a good short-yardage runner. 

Bills’ backers will cite Josh Allen’s 11-2 career record vs. Dolphins, including four consecutive victories. However, mad veterans left Buffalo this offseason, such as WR Stefon Diggs and defensive backs Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, and Micah Hyde. So, this isn’t the same Bills team that’s owned the Dolphins recently. 

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (BetMGM) 

• Moneyline: Buffalo (+115) | Miami (-135)
• Spread: Bills +2.5 (-110) | DOLPHINS -2.5 (-110) 
• Total — 49 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Buffalo beat Miami 21-14 in Week 18 last season in a "winner-take-all" for the AFC East. But, the Dolphins were missing Mostert, WR Jaylen Waddle, and four defensive starters for that Week 18 meeting. This time, Miami’s defense is mostly at full strength, and Waddle and Tyreek Hill are available Thursday to attack Buffalo's weaker secondary.

READ: Dolphins' Tyreek Hill Calls For 'Change' Following Incident With Police

Furthermore, the Dolphins’ offensive line was particularly impressive Sunday. According to ESPN, they were sixth in pass-blocking win rate and second in run-blocking win rate. Considering Jacksonville’s defensive line is more talented than Buffalo’s, Miami will have an edge in the trenches Thursday.

Ultimately, even if Achane and Mostert can’t play, the Dolphins have more ways to win whereas the Bills rely on Allen’s brilliance. Could Allen single-handedly beat Miami? Of course, that’s why Buffalo pays him all that money. 

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

That said, Allen has struggled, relatively speaking, and turned the ball over when given too much responsibility. If Allen plays a B+ or worse game, the Dolphins will beat the Bills. Moreover, Poyer took his talents to South Beach this offseason. Poyer’s familiarity with Allen should help the Dolphins Thursday. 

This is the first time since Allen’s rookie season (2018) the Dolphins are favored over the Bills. With that in mind, given Buffalo’s dominance of Miami recently, the public will be lining up to bet the Bills Thursday. 

Finally, I have a few trend-cherries to put atop my pro-Miami handicapping sundae. Last year, Buffalo was 4-4 straight up and 1-7 against the spread (ATS) in primetime games. Since 2020, the Bills are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS as road underdogs. The Dolphins are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS with a +8.6 spread margin in September under head coach Mike McDaniel.  

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Bills 24 

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