Bet The Better QB, Coach, Defense In 2025 AFC Championship: Bills At Chiefs
We get the ninth installment of a modern-day Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady when Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills visit Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2025 AFC Championship Sunday. They are tied 4-4 in the first eight meetings. However, Mahomes is 3-0 vs. Allen in the playoffs, including a 27-24 victory in Buffalo in the divisional round last year.
The Bills handed the Chiefs their first and only legit loss this season (I'm not counting Kansas City's 38-0 loss at the Denver Broncos in Week 18 when the Chiefs rested their starters) with a 30-21 victory in Week 11 at home. Allen had a better QBR (83.7-60.4), which accounts for rushing and passing, than Mahomes that day, and Buffalo "won the box score".
KC is a slight favorite with good two-way betting action. The Chiefs are -1.5 (-115) with a -125 moneyline and the total is 48.5 (-110 for the Over and Under) at DraftKings. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the bets are on Buffalo +1.5, but nearly 70% of the cash is on Kansas City's moneyline at the time of writing. I.e., the "fade the public" angle is worthless here.
I've heard a lot of smart people say this is Allen's year, citing KC's 11-0 record in one-score games and 8-10 record against the spread (ATS). Yet, the Chiefs aren't "lucky to be here." They are the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions with the best quarterback of his generation, the best active head coach in the NFL, and a better defense.
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It feels like the Chiefs always win these toss-up games because they do. They are 14-5 straight up (SU) and ATS in the +2.5 to -2.5 odds corridor. Mahomes leads the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, which is the essence of playing quarterback, aka winning close games.
Furthermore, the Bills have a +27 turnover margin in the regular season and playoffs. They haven't committed more turnovers than their opponents once this season. That's more unsustainable than KC's coin-flip victories. Buffalo was out-played by the Baltimore Ravens this past weekend but won the turnover battle 3-0.
The Kansas City Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the last five postseasons Sunday in the 2025 AFC Championship. (Photo credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)
Also, Kansas City beat the Houston Texans Saturday in the divisional round, while Buffalo beat Baltimore Sunday. In the Mahomes Era (est. 2019), the Chiefs are 24-5 SU with a rest edge over their opponents. They are 2-0 SU and ATS vs. the Bills since 2019 with a rest advantage, which includes last year in the playoffs.
Ultimately, KC's rest edge is my biggest factor in this matchup. Buffalo's defense isn't good enough to stop the Chiefs when Andy Reid has extra time to prep. The Bills are 25th in yards per play allowed, 28th in defensive third-down conversion rate, and 20th in sack rate. As boring as it sounds, Kansas City will get a chance to be the NFL's first three-peat Super Bowl champ.
Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
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