Browns Will Clinch Playoff Berth By Boat-Racing The Jets Thursday
Spoiler alert: I'm picking the Cleveland Browns (10-5) in the Circa Million V NFL betting contest for Week 17 when they host the New York Jets (6-9) on Thursday Night Football. As of Wednesday, the Browns are -7.5 home favorites across the board. Circa will most likely release Cleveland at that price in its contest lines for Week 17.
Since you have to submit all of your contest picks at once, typically people skip the Thursday Night Football game. Teams playing on the weekend practice Friday so, by selecting the Thursday game, you're forging up-to-date injury news.
But, injury absences have meant less this year and I'm batting 1.000 in these Thursday Night Football games. I've hit all six Thursday games picked this season. This includes taking the Los Angeles Rams -6.5 over the New Orleans Saints last week.
Browns WR Amari Cooper celebrates a TD against the Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
With that in mind, I'm going back to the well in Week 17. I'm clicking Cleveland this week since short weeks favor the better coach, the home-road splits for both defenses are startling, and New York's win vs. the Washington Commanders in Week 16 is meaningless.
Washington tried to give that game away. The Jets jumped out to a 1st-half 17-0 lead thanks to miscues by the Commanders. Washington rallied back to take a 4th-quarter lead after benching QB Sam Howell for backup QB Jacoby Brissett.
New York needed a game-winning 54-yard FG with 00:05 to avoid blowing that game. If the Jets choked last week's game away, it could've been the end of Robert Saleh's NYJ head coaching gig. This leads me to my 1st point, which is ...
The Browns have a massive coaching edge
Again, short weeks favor the better coaching staffs. Since 2013, home favorites of at least -7 on Thursdays are 29-2 straight up (SU) with a +13.3 scoring margin and 21-9-1 against the spread (ATS). It's safe to assume most TD-favorites usually have a coaching edge.
For the record, I'm not an "anti-Robert Saleh guy". But, at best, Saleh is unproven through his 1st three seasons in New York. Saleh is 15 games below-.500 for his career entering Week 16 (17-32 SU career record).
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh talks with Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski prior to the 2023 Pro Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
That said, Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski is the 2020 NFL Coach of the Year. He led the Browns to a 11-5 SU record in the regular season and a playoff victory at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stefanski is the favorite to win Coach of the Year again at DraftKings Sportsbook.
His coaching staff is better than New York's too. Cleveland has a top-five defense in the NFL under 1st-year defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the league under 1st-year offensive coordinator, and head coach flunkey, Nathaniel Hackett.
Also ...
New York's defense doesn't travel
The Jets allow 19.6 points per game (PPG) at MetLife and 23.2 PPG on the road. Opponents have a 100.1 QB Rating on the road vs. the Jets but only a 63.5 QB Rating when they visit New York. In fact, the Jets have 12 INTs at home this year and 2 INTs in away games.
Furthermore, Browns QB Joe Flacco is 3-1 SU this year and has improved their offense since signing with Cleveland prior to Week 13. Flacco has better numbers than Browns QB Deshaun Watson and is averaging 326.8 passing yards per game.
Don't sleep on Flacco's weapons either. Browns WR Amari Cooper went off last week for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards on 11 catches with 2 TDs. Cleveland TE David Njoku has 4 receiving TDs in four games with Flacco
Plus, this is a quasi-revenge game for Flacco who played for the Jets from 2020-22. Okay, "revenge game" might be an exaggeration. He is at least familiar with New York's defense though. Flacco has the 2nd-best odds to win 2023 Comeback Player of the Year.
Finally ...
Cleveland’s defense is world-class at home
The Browns allow 3.5 yards per play at home (5.6 YPP on the road) and 13.1 PPG (29.4 PPG on the road). Their defensive line is going to maul New York’s offensive line. The Jets have the worst pressure rate allowed in the NFL and the Browns are 6th in pressure rate on defense.
Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett celebrates a tackle for loss against the Chicago Bears in an NFL Week 15 game. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
New York's offensive line ranks 26th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 31st in run-blocking. While Cleveland leads the NFL in run-stopping win rate and ranks 2nd in pass-rushing win rate. The Jets don’t have a single offensive linemen that grades above replacement level, per Pro Football Focus.