Broncos Will Struggle To Score Against Bills

Broncos vs. Bills, 8:15 ET

The football week is almost to a close as we enter into Monday Night Football. This week, I've pushed one game and cashed the other two. I can say I was slightly frustrated that I didn't get the first touchdown and first Falcons touchdown scored with Bijan Robinson, but it wasn't a complete loss. The under in the Jets vs. Raiders was easy, and I was lucky to grab the Bears -3 before it moved up to 3.5. Now I look to stay undefeated in what has been a very hot stretch for these Outkick plays. Monday Night Football brings us the Broncos vs. Bills.

Denver isn't quite as abysmal as they were to start the season when they had one of the more disastrous performances of the year and arguably the worst defense in the NFL. They've posted back-to-back wins and have taken down three of their past five games. Perhaps most telling is in that stretch they've faced the Chiefs twice and held them to a total of 28 points in two games. This isn't quite the dominant Chiefs offense we've seen in years past - they have no receiver worth a damn - but Patrick Mahomes was still on the field in both games. The Broncos have allowed 20 or fewer points in each of their past three games. Maybe they finally figured it out. Offensively they aren't exactly shining, but they are getting the job done. Russell Wilson's numbers are pretty impressive: 1,613 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. That's the production that almost any head coach would be willing to take. But, they have to travel to Buffalo for this game. Buffalo has been very good at home (even if they haven't been great overall). Their defense will be better and their offense should be solid. Yes, they are missing Micah Hyde, and one of their cornerbacks, but I still think their defense will manage well enough against the Broncos.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 1: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills on the sideline against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

I've said this before, but something is off about the Bills. Quarterback Josh Allen isn't having a bad season, but he also isn't looking like an MVP. He has 2,423 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, but he also has given the ball away via interceptions nine times. That's always been a problem, but this year it appears more evident and the Bills don't seem to be overcoming the turnover as easily. I'm not convinced that Denver has fully turned it around - they played well in Kansas City, but I need to see them do it again tonight. The thing is they might not need to play all that well if Allen makes another one of these bonehead throws. In order to win this game, it should be a simple gameplan: don't turn the ball over. If they do that, they have every advantage you could want. They have the better quarterback, better defense, best receiver, and probably the better running game (though you could make the argument one way or another). Even their head coach might be better than Sean Payton. The Bills are the better team. But, that doesn't always mean anything if the team can't be focused.

The one thing that Denver has that Buffalo doesn't is that the Broncos are coming off of a bye week. The Bills, on the other hand, just had to face the Bengals in Cincinnati and lost the game. This season, though, the Bills are 4-1 at home. Their one home loss? It was to the Jaguars... in London. The Bills average 31 points in Buffalo and average 14 points allowed. I'd be surprised if the Broncos could put up three touchdowns in this game and I think they score fewer than 20 points. I'm willing to take the Broncos team total under 20.5 at -135. I'd lean toward the Bills covering, but their current form isn't great and they haven't beaten either of their past two home opponents by more than seven points.

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