Brewers Will Steal Opening Day From Mets

Brewers vs. Mets, 1:10 ET

The grass is cut, lines are chalked, sunflower seeds and gum loaded up for players, and the uniforms hung up in the locker rooms. Yes, my friends, Opening Day is here for baseball. I'm excited once again for us to get back into the saddle and doing Shohei Ohtani's interpreter's favorite pastime, sports betting. We did already put a play in one of the South Korea games and we won that won so let's see if we can get a winning streak going to open this season. Today, I'm going to put a play on the Brewers and Mets as they square off to open the season. 

Very often when we first start a year, we focus on last season and what happened. It makes sense because you have to start somewhere, but each season is always different. After looking back, we start to examine what left from last year and why this one will be different. The Brewers started to make me question their decision making last season when they traded away Josh Hader. The Brewers still won the division. Craig Counsell, regarded as one of the better managers in the league, went to a division rival. Then they made the decision to trade Corbin Burnes away to the Orioles. Without Hader they stayed strong, without Burnes the rest of the rotation will need to step up. I'm not a huge believer in managers making that much of a difference. Sure, they can win some games or lose some games for a team, but I don't put that much on the day-to-day betting consideration. The Brewers still have the same solid lineup they've had for years. They won't blow you away offensively, but they are capable of winning games. Freddy Peralta takes the ball for the Brewers today. Last season he put together a really strong campaign, going 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA and was top-15 in both strikeouts and WHIP. He was worse on the road than at home last year, having about a full run higher ERA. It wasn't the first time he has performed better at home, but 2022 he was better on the road, so it isn't always the result. Peralta faced the Mets once last season and he went six innings and allowed just two hits with no earned runs allowed.

It was a year of frustration for Pete Alonso and the Mets. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

The Mets had Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in the rotation last season. This season they enter the year with Jose Quintana taking the ball. That is like going from driving a Mercedes to driving a Ford. Ford isn't a bad car, it is reliable, but you're missing some of the greatness and features of the more polished vehicle. Last year was a season of high hopes. I can't tell you how many people thought the team was going to roll and be one of the best teams in baseball. They weren't and had a fire sale to get rid of contracts as quickly as possible. He was strong for the Mets last season with a 2.76 ERA at home. He was pretty solid overall with a 3.57 ERA as well, but the Mets were just 4-9 in games that he started. That isn't a reflection of his performance as much as it is the team's performance. New York still has Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor that opposing hitters have to deal with, but their biggest lineup addition was Harrison Bader, who is good, but not someone that I'd be overly concerned about. 

This game is between two teams that probably are not going to make a lot of noise this season (though I do think the Brewers still have a chance to win the NL Central). I'm going to go with the better pitcher in this one and take Peralta and the Brewers. I get it that Quintana has been solid enough, but if I get even money between the two of these pitchers, I have more confidence in Peralta than him. I also think the Brewers bullpen is better. I'll take them to win this one at -110. 

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