Brewers, Mariners Form MLB's Friday Best-Bet Daily Double
The MLB is about to take a backseat to football until the 2023 World Series. Week 0 in college football kicks off Saturday and I should probably be focusing my attention solely on that. Regardless, I will not give up on baseball. The Seattle Mariners hosting the KC Royals and the San Diego Padres visiting the Milwaukee Brewers are my two favorite games on ...
MLB's Friday Card
San Diego Padres (61-67) at Milwaukee Brewers (70-57)
Padres-Brewers odds for MLB Friday, August 25th from DraftKings.
The Brewers (-115) look to extend their winning streak to six games Friday. During their 5-game win streak, the Brewers have scored at least six runs each time. They have a massive pitching edge over the Padres (-105).
Milwaukee starting RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 2.89 ERA) gets the nod while RHP Yu Darvish (8-9, 4.35 ERA) takes the ball for San Diego. Since 2022, the Brewers are 13-2 straight up (SU) as home favorites in Woodruff starts.
Per Statcast, Woodruff has a .198/.260/.332 expected slash line in 70 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Padres hitters. His K-rate is 25.7% and exit velocity (EV) is 86.6 mph in those PA. However, Darvish has a 24.5% K-rate, 91.0 mph EV, and .272/.375.573 expected slash line in 102 PA vs. current Brewers batters.
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Milwaukee's bullpen ranks higher than San Diego's in runs per nine innings, K-BB%, FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), WHIP, and WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Neither lineup has been impressive this season. But, the Padres have the 3rd-worst batting average in MLB over the past two weeks, per FanGraphs. Plus, the Brewers lead baseball in BB/K over that span and have a higher WAR than San Diego.
BET: Brewers (-115) moneyline over the Padres at DraftKings (down to -130)
Kansas City Royals (41-88) at Seattle Mariners (71-56)
Royals-Mariners odds for MLB Friday, August 25th from DraftKings.
Seattle had its 8-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in a 5-4 extra-inning loss at the Chicago White Sox to cap off a 10-game road trip. KC ended its 4-game losing skid with a 4-0 win at the Oakland Athletics Wednesday.
The Mariners are charging up the AL West standings and vying for playoff contention. Whereas the Royals are 25.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in a bad AL Central division. Seattle has scored at least six runs in eight of its last 10 games. KC has scored four or fewer runs in eight straight.
More importantly, the Mariners have a 3-phase edge over the Royals in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Seattle RHP Bryce Miller (8-4, 3.78 ERA) looks legit in his rookie season. Kansas City RHP Brady Singer (8-9, 5.04 ERA) has the worst ERA in his four MLB seasons.
Seattle Mariners starting RHP Bryce Miller against the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Mariners are 6-3 SU and 5-4 on the Run Line (RL) as home favorites with Miller on the bump. Yet if you remove the AL East games (MLB's toughest division), Seattle is 5-0 SU and RL in those spots and haven't allowed more than 1 ER.
Moreover, Seattle's bullpen ranks top-three in MLB for FIP, WAR, K-BB%, and hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs. KC's bullpen on the other hand ranks 24th or worse in all of those pitching categories.
Over the last two weeks, the Mariners lead MLB in WAR and are 2nd in both wRC+ and wOBA. Finally, Seattle is 14-7 RL in August with the 2nd-best return on investment (+30.2%) and RL profit (+$794).