Brewers Will Continue March Toward Division Crown

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

I mentioned this in a different article, but I feel it is also relevant here: When schedule makers put together things, they have to figure out a lot of different things - travel, stadium availability, etc. Most of all, they usually want to put teams against each other that might be fighting for a division victory or playoff position. Because sports aren't predictable, it doesn't always work out. When they scheduled this matchup between the Cardinals and Brewers, they had to have thought it could be a division shaping battle.

The Cardinals have not quite lived up to their end of the bargain trying to get themselves out of the basement of the NL Central and back to the top. After last season was a disaster, this season was shaping up to be that way as well. Then the Cardinals finally figured it out and made a nice run. They never were able to take over the division lead, but they at least made Milwaukee sweat a bit. Additionally, they at least put themselves into contention for a Wild Card spot. They are currently one game above .500, but are 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. It is highly unlikely that they will make the playoffs. Certainly, the team has improved, but they still are -55 with the run differential, so work still needs to be done. One of the bright spots this season has been Sonny Gray, who starts tonight. He is 12-9 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and has 179 strikeouts. His WHIP is 14th best in the Majors and he is 8th in total strikeouts. Gray has struggled on the road significantly compared to his home starts. At home, he has a 2.63 ERA, on the road it balloons up to 5.62. He has made two starts against the Brewers this season, going 11.1 innings and allowing eight earned runs. Six of the earned runs came in the game he pitched as a visitor. This is in line with how he has pitched overall. In August, he allowed 18 earned runs over 36 innings, and 13 of the runs came in 18 road innings.

St. Louis Cardinals LHP Sonny Gray throws against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

The Brewers have a bit of pressure, but are headed for another division crown. They aren't getting a ton of national attention, and they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs, but they've put together a great season. Their rotation lost a Cy Young winner and some other contributors. Their offense has suffered some injuries and hits at various times during the season. And, the team lost Craig Counsell, who was viewed as one of the best managers in baseball. The team really hasn't missed a beat. This is one of the few teams I was correct about during the offseason and the +700 ticket for them to win the division is just a few weeks away from cashing (hopefully this is one that people tailed). Tonight the Brewers send out Colin Rea to take down the Cardinals. Rea has a 12-4 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has put together a really nice season, the best of his career. There have been some struggles in certain games, but for the most part he is going out and delivering around five innings of two or three-run baseball. He only faced the Cardinals once this season, he went five scoreless innings, allowing five hits, and striking out three hitters.

I actually think that Gray is a better pitcher overall than Rea, but this year, the two guys have been rather close in performance. However, this season, Gray has significantly struggled on the road. This type of a split, this late in the season, is not a one-off performance, it is a trend. I will take the Brewers to win this game as they continue their march toward securing the division and a playoff bye. 

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