Breaking Down The NL MVP Candidates

Baseball used to be my favorite offseason. When I was younger, I had dreams of being a sports agent. I watched Arlis, I thought Jerry Maguire was a cool guy, and I wrote emails to Scott Boras in hopes of getting an internship or something. Those dreams died down when I realized a lot of agents are lawyers, and that I wasn't going to spend the time I needed to in order to be an agent. But, that was part of the reason I loved baseball offseason. There was the hope that there would be a big free agent splash. There would be some tide-turning trade that might make things crazy for the upcoming season. This year's free agency has been a bit of a let down. It isn't the first time that multiple big name stars are still on the market when Spring Training started, but basically nothing happened until Shohei Ohtani was signed, and even afterward, not much happened. Still, the landscape of both leagues changed enough and now leads us to start thinking about Awards season. Let's take a look at the National League and see what we should bet on for this year's National League MVP. 

Last year the MVP award was probably decided by June or July. Ronald Acuna Jr. wasn't quite a coast-to-coast winner, but it was close enough. He was dominant and putting up ridiculous numbers for one of the best teams in baseball. Can he repeat? Absolutely. Is he getting the Mike Trout treatment where he is 2:1 or 3:1 to start the season? No, he's sitting at +550. Last season, he ended up as a top-5 finisher in average, home runs, RBIs, and OPS. It was a very well deserved award, but can he do it again? His was the first time that he finished with a batting average over .300. It was just the second time that he had over 100 RBIs, and he matched his career high with 41 home runs. Perhaps the biggest surprise though was that he went from a career high of 37 stolen bases to 73 last year. This was just the second time that he played more than 120 games in a season as well. I'm not sold that he is going to replicate this production next year, but he is the best player on a team that might once again be the best in the National League. 550 is fair for Acuna, and I can't argue against taking him.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the most electric player in MLB.

The other favorite to consider this year is Mookie Betts. He was the runner-up last year and I think he could get over the hump this year. He is listed at +650 and his lineup just got him even more protection with Shohei Ohtani joining the daily hitters. Betts, like Acuna, ended last season ranking top-10 in the major categories. He only stole 14 bases and had fewer homers, a lower average, and a lower OPS, but he did have one more RBI than Acuna. Now he will have two MVP candidates surrounding him in the lineup with Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. We can probably expect the Dodgers to once again win the division (I was a big believer in the Diamondbacks, but am not sure they can overtake the Dodgers in the regular season). Provided Betts doesn't get hurt I don't think there is a question about what he will produce: a +.300 average, 35+ doubles, 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs, and 60+ walks. At +650, I think he offers good value. 

Who else should we consider in the race? I'm sure Shohei Ohtani will get some consideration, but I wouldn't take it. Ohtani is not pitching this season and just signed a stupid big contract. Will there be pressure for him to perform? Absolutely, can he live up to it? No reason to think he can't considering how he has performed after being super hyped coming to America. However, some of the love will wear off because he is only hitting and not pitching. At +650, I think he needs to really shine and play a full season. I don't think he plays a full season, and I'm not expecting him to hit 40 homers, partially because I don't think he plays 130 games. Freddie Freeman is a hell of a hitter, and he finished 3rd last year. At +1200, I wouldn't talk you out of it because he should get some of the same benefit that Betts gets from Ohtani, but he might be the forgotten of the three studs on the Dodgers. 

Outside of the Dodgers, I do like Fernando Tatis Jr. who played fairly well on a dysfunctional team when he returned from his PED suspension. Tatis Jr. now doesn't have Soto, but he still has Xander Boegarts and Manny Machado on the team. The Padres have to be looking to rebound after the embarrassment of last season and I think Tatis could be the guy that leads them to the redemption. I'll probably stay off of it because I think the odds should be higher.  

If we are looking at the longshots, there are three names that come to mind for me. Luis Arraez of the Marlins hit .400 until basically the All-Star break. If he can end the season hitting .375 and maybe get to 20 homers and 90 RBIs, I think there is no question that he will win. He has increased his homers, RBIs, and average each of the past three seasons. I'm not sure that is possible again, but at 60:1 I like the play. Another to consider would be Nolan Arenado. He's one of the best hitters in the game and the Cardinals very rarely have two bad seasons in a row. Arenado was one of my choices last year and now at +4000 I think it is worth a shot. Finally, one name that isn't there but I'm anxious to see the numbers on is Cody Bellinger. He had a great season for the Cubs last year and is back for them once again on what is essentially a one-year contract. Bellinger only played in 130 games last season, hit .307 with 26 homers and 97 RBIs. Push another 15 or 20 games, and see him with .315, 32 homers, and 107 RBIs, with a Cubs playoff berth, I think he is a legitimate candidate. 

It is always hard to play an MVP future for baseball because there are so many games. Arraez, for example, was great the first half, but fell off in the second. If Acuna got injured ¾ of the way into the year, Betts would've probably won the award. Keep checking for value throughout the year, but I'd put some money on Betts, Bellinger (when available and at +1500 or higher), and Tatis. 

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