Breaking Down Receiver Props For The Super Bowl

49ers vs. Chiefs, 6:30 ET

We've covered novelty props, touchdowns, rushing, and quarterback props. What's even left to talk about from a betting standpoint for the Super Bowl? Only about a million different things. In this article, I'm going to talk about receiving props and see what we can bet on for this one. With one of the MVP finalists and one of the best of all time slinging the football in this game, the receivers should have plenty of opportunities, but which are worthy of betting on and which should we skip? Let's get to it.

The 49ers have Brock Purdy throwing for them and he has had a very nice year. Purdy's favorite target during the regular season was Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was able to average 83.9 yards per game. I would guess he won't be matched up against L'Jarius Sneed. Sneed has been an excellent cornerback this season and I would expect him to go against Deebo Samuel. That doesn't mean Aiyuk will have an easy matchup though. He still has to deal with a great Kansas City secondary. The best option for the 49ers in this game is to spread the ball around. That's partially why he has a total of 59.5 yards as his total. I lean toward the under for a variety of reasons. He's had 14 targets in the two playoff games but only caught six passes and gotten 100 yards. 51 of those yards have come on one catch. Samuel is the receiver I think we could see make more of an impact in this game. His total is at 57.5 for the Super Bowl. That is only two yards lower than he averaged during the regular season. In the playoffs, Samuel had 24 yards in the first game against the Packers, a game he left with injury. Against the Lions, he was able to get eight receptions on nine targets and gained 89 yards. Samuel will still be the primary focus of the 49ers passing game and they will look to find ways to get the ball into a playmaker's hands. I'll take the over for Samuel in this one. George Kittle is was between Aiyuk and Samuel in targets during the regular season. He is a bit of a security blanket for the 49ers. He averaged 63.8 yards per game in the regular season but only saw three targets in the game against the Lions. He did have seven targets and 81 yards against the Packers. In a bit of an interesting stat, Kittle had 27 yards against the Lions, but his longest reception was 28 yards. His total is 49.5 yards for the game. I do lean toward his over as well. The Chiefs have allowed 42.5 yards per game to tight ends. They haven't really faced anyone with the skill of Kittle either. Christian McCaffrey is someone I expect to be heavily involved in the gameplan. They are likely to fake handoffs to him and put him in play action, but that will give them opportunities to dump passes off to him in the flat if they need to. He is listed at 34.5 receiving yards, and I think the under is probably a better play for him. He could break free on a pass for 35+ yards at any time. He's only gone over 35 yards seven times this season, once in the playoffs. He does have 17 targets in the games so he is always a checkdown option, but the Chiefs will be prepared to let anyone but McCaffrey beat them. 

Travis Kelce restructured his contract in hopes the Kansas City Chiefs would sign free agent Odell Beckham Jr. (Getty Images)

On the Chiefs side, the receivers are a bit more obvious in terms of who will play what role. They want the ball to go to Travis Kelce and the second option is Rashee Rice. That doesn't mean we won't see success from other receivers or running backs, but the balance of targets in the playoffs looks like this: Kelce has 27 and Rice has 25. The rest of the players on the Chiefs roster have 39 total targets combined. Kelce has a total of 70.5 and I don't think the 49ers have any chance of stopping him. They are going to try and double-team him, be physical with him, and everything else you've seen every other team do for years. I would not play the under on his yardage total at all. He's had either a touchdown or 100 yards in each of the three Super Bowls as well. He's gotten over this total in two of the three Super Bowls he has played as well, including the one against the 49ers. Rice has been a reliable option for Mahomes and the Chiefs. I expect them to trust him as much as possible in this game. He has a receiving total of 65.5 in this game and has gone over the total in just one of the playoff games. I don't feel great about his over, but I do lean that way. I like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and do think he could be an option for the Chiefs to try and stretch the field a bit. He has a total of just 18.5 receiving yards and if he gets five targets he probably gets over this number. The over is the clearest look on the Chiefs side in my opinion. I also think that Isiah Pacheco goes under his receiving total. He is listed at 16.5 yards and only has 27 receiving yards in the three playoff games. The Chiefs are better than anyone at adapting and creating good gameplans. I just don't know why they would need to use Pacheco more than normal. I think this is the second best look on the Chiefs, play his under. 

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