Boston Tries To Stay Alive Against Orioles

Orioles vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

Football on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all gave me a much needed stretch where I didn't need to think as much about baseball. I still went through my regular process, but didn't share the plays with Outkick readers (sorry). It was nice to talk about something different though. As much as I love football, I do like the individual series and daily offering that baseball presents to us. The short break gave me what I needed to be rejuvenated for today's game between the Orioles and Red Sox. 

Although these teams are in the same division, they are likely destined for two very different outcomes with the Orioles headed to the playoffs. Baltimore has put together a great season, sitting 20 games over .500 at the moment. The team is still a half-game behind the Yankees for the top spot in the AL East, but even if they miss out on that it would take a complete disaster for them to miss the playoffs. At the All-Star break, the team was just 59-38, which put them at 21 games over .500. They obviously haven't made much progress since the break as they are a game under .500 over their last 50ish games. In all honesty, the team hasn't been quite as outstanding as they were since around the middle to end of June. It would be ideal for Baltimore to get to the playoffs with a bit of momentum. They don't need to fight for their spot, so without a hot streak, they likely will enter the playoffs as an average team. Cade Povich is on the mound for the Orioles tonight and brings his 2-7 record with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. In other words, not a guy they will likely have on the playoff roster. Povich has bounced around a bit this season. He did put together his best performance of the season in his last start with 7.1 innings of scoreless baseball. He allowed just five hits and struck out 10 hitters. That was against the White Sox though, so you can't put too much stock into it. He has faced the Red Sox once this season, going 6.1 innings allowing six hits and two earned runs. 

BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 26: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles makes a catch to retire Andrés Giménez of the Cleveland Guardians in the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

The Red Sox are highly unlikely to make the playoffs at this point. Currently, they still four games back of the final spot, and still would need to pass the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners who both have improved recently. It isn't much of a jump to get past either of them, as they are just a half-game back of both of those clubs. The Boston offense has been surprisingly good this season, but it has been more station-to-station baseball. They are within the top-10 of home runs and runs scored for the season, but closer to the bottom portion. Their pitching was one of the best at one point, but is now sitting at 4.17 for their team ERA. This places the Red Sox at 18th in the league and has been at least a small portion of the reason they aren't owning that third Wild Card spot. Tonight they put Brayan Bello on the hill. Bello has had a decent enough season, but it has been inconsistent. For the year, Bellow is 12-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. After a couple of quality starts, he allowed five earned in 5.1 innings then put up another good start as he went eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits. Finally, in his most recent start, he allowed four earned runs over his past five innings. He has faced the Orioles three times this season and allowed five earned runs over 16.1 innings. 

While both teams probably have their destinies determined, there is some meaning behind this game. The Orioles should want that top spot in the AL East and assure themselves of as much home-field games as possible. The Red Sox are still fighting to get into the playoffs although it is unlikely. The good news for them is that they have the better pitcher on the mound. The Orioles are the better team, but they've been rather average. Couple that with one Povich, who I have no faith in and I'm going to take Boston to win this one. 

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