Boston Celtics Will Pounce On Miami Heat Early In Game 2
The Boston Celtics (0-1) are out for vengeance in Game 2 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) vs. the Miami Heat (1-0) Friday. Tip-off for Heat-Celtics Game 2 at the TD Garden in Boston is set for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Miami rallied back from a 1st-half deficit to steal the series opener 123-116 behind another superb Jimmy Butler game. Playoff Jimmy scored a game-high 35 points with 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 6 steals.
Butler gets to the rack in Game 1 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Celtics at the TD Garden in Boston. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
However, since 2020, home favorites after losing Game 1 are 14-1 straight up (SU) and 13-2 against the spread (ATS) in Game 2. They have a +17.9 SU margin and a +11.6 ATS margin in those spots.
In last year’s Heat-Celtics ECF, Boston clubbed Miami 127-102 after losing Game 1. That said, the Heat were the home team in that series. But, the Celtics being the home team this year strengthens their case for Game 2.
Miami won Game 1 in its 1st two series this postseason. The Heat lost both Game 2s and failed to cover in one of those losses. Boston crushed the Sixers 121-87 in Game 2 of the 2nd round after losing Game 1.
Celtics -5.5 (-115) in the 1st half
Boston is 11-3 SU (+9.5 SU margin) and ATS (+6.3 ATS margin) in the last two postseasons following a loss. Plus, the Celtics are 8-1 ATS after its lost nine non-covers.
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla is getting clowned on for saying that (paraphrasing) “We won three of the four quarters”. But Mazzulla is right.
The Celtics held a 9-point lead entering halftime and Miami blitzed them 46-25 in the 3rd quarter. Furthermore, both teams hit a bunch of tough shots Wednesday.
Celtics SF Jayson Tatum handles the ball vs. Butler Wednesday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Heat had a 14.1% wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) in Game 1 and the Celtics were at 14.8%. For perspective, 15.5% was the lowest rate of wide-open 3PAr during the regular season by the Hornets.
Miami hit 66.7% of its wide-open 3s and Boston hit 50.0%. Even if the Heat get the same quality of looks from deep in Game 2, it’s unlikely they’ll knock down two-thirds of their wide-open 3s.
People see the Heat +9 and think “That’s too many points for this feisty Miami squad”. But, that’s what the bookmakers want them to think. The Heat are becoming a public ‘dog, which tend to get slaughtered by sportsbooks.
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown shoots a floater on the Miami Heat at the TD Garden. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Celtics have struggled at home in these playoffs but they’ve gotten off to good starts and played with their food in the 2nd half of those games. Boston is out-scoring opponents 61.7-53.7 at home in the 1st half this postseason.
Since the Celtics have let opponents hang around late and the Heat are the scrappiest team in the NBA, Boston’s 1st-half spread of -5.5 (-115) is a better look. Sportsbooks have priced the Celtics being a great home team in the 1st-half of these playoff games into this line.
BET: Celtics -5.5 (-115) 1st-half line at DraftKings Sportsbook
Boston Celtics' 1st-half spread vs. the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the ECF as of 11:30 p.m. ET Thursday, May 18th from DraftKings.
Heat-Celtics Game 2 Player Props
Miami SG Max Strus Point Prop: 18.5
Strus did score 13 and 23 points in two of the four regular-season Heat-Celtics games this season. But, Strus shot just 39.4% from the field and 36.0% from behind the arc in those four meetings.
He shot worse from the field in away games and his offensive rating fell from 114 at home to 107 on the road. If Game 2 is as one-sided as the market thinks it could be, then it could slow down late, killing all Overs.
The fact that the Under for Strus’s point prop is a lot pricier despite Strus scoring at least 14 points in six consecutive playoff games. His made 3-pointer prop is 2.5 with the Over set at -135, which adds to the suspiciousness of these odds.
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown defends Heat SG Max Strus during Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
In Game 1, Strus’s primary defender was Celtics wing Jaylen Brown, followed by F Jayson Tatum, then PG Marcus Smart. Brown and Tatum are very good defenders and Smart is the 2022 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Also, Strus needs to knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers and get random points since no plays are called for him. Strus had the 2nd-lowest usage rate in Miami’s Game 1 rotation.
Lastly, the player prop market is usually sharper than the sides and totals market. Let’s spend a little more on Strus to go UNDER 12.5 points since the sportsbooks are trying to steer the public toward the Over.
BET: Heat SG Max Strus UNDER 12.5 points (-125)
Odds for the Under for Miami SG Max Strus's point prop vs. the Celtics in Game 1.
Miami PG Gabe Vincent Assists Prop: 3.5
This is another play based partially on usage. Vincent was the only Heat player that had a lower usage than Strus in Game 1.
Vincent is listed as a “point guard” but doesn’t run Miami’s offense like a true point guard. The Heat runs their offense more so through Butler and Adebayo.
Out of all the Miami players that dished assists in Game 1, Vincent’s 2 assists were the fewest. Butler had a team-high 7 assists, Bam threw 5 assists and PG Kyle Lowry and SF Caleb Martin both dished 3 assists.
Heat PG Gabe Vincent dribbles by Celtics big Robert Williams III during Game 1 of the 2023 ECF. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
In five Heat-Celtics games this season including the playoffs, Vincent has thrown more than 3.5 assists once. Granted, he came off the bench in all four regular-season meetings between these teams.
Ultimately, my favorite angle for the Under in Vincent’s 3.5-assist prop is his role in Miami’s offense. Butler will run the offense and Vincent is more of a floor-spacing 3-and-D role player. Not a “point guard”.
BET: Heat PG Gabe Vincent UNDER 3.5 assists (-135)
Odds for the Under for Miami PG Gabe Vincent's assist prop vs. the Celtics in Game 1.