Boise State Will Coast To Victory Over San Diego State

San Diego State vs. Boise State, 8:00 ET

If you were busy watching the World Series, paying close attention to the start of the NBA season, thrilled about the start of the next NHL season, or, maybe super pumped about all of the NFL games we get each week, I wouldn't blame you for not realizing that College Football has taken place every night for weeks now. We have a pretty exciting game tonight with San Diego State taking on #15-ranked Boise State.

San Diego State is not having a very good season, with just a 3-4 record, but they have begun conference play with a 2-0 record. Over their past five games, the Aztecs are just 2-3, and playing oddly consistent football with 20-something points scored in four of the five games. There really isn't much to be impressed by with San Diego State. The quarterback play has left a lot to be desired with Danny O'Neil completing 62% of his passes, but throwing for just six touchdowns and two interceptions. Their running game is a bit better, but with teams now loading the box a bit more, the opportunity to get through the holes will be much more difficult. The defense for the Aztecs is also a problem. While they have scored 20+ points in four straight games, they have also allowed 21+ points in each of the past six games. I wouldn't exactly call the competition they are facing top-notch, either. In this game they will have to find a way to stop the best running back in the country. 

Oct 12, 2024; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; A general view of San Diego State Aztecs helmets against the Wyoming Cowboys during the fourth quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Speaking of that running back, Ashton Jeanty, has run for 1,376 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. Boise State has been successful for a number of reasons, but the primary reason is certainly Jeanty racking up yards and finding the endzone consistently. This guy is averaging 8.7 yards per carry. It really isn't just him though. They have a total of 26 rushing touchdowns in seven games and the entire team is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. The passing game is also nothing to sneeze at with 1,482 yards from their primary quarterback and he has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. This game should be a feast for both if they want it to be. If the Aztecs drop back in coverage, Jeanty will easily rack up yards. If they load the box, then Maddux Madsen will throw the ball to some talented receivers. The lone loss for Boise State came against Oregon, currently the best team in the country. They also have scored at least 28 points in every game this season. 

It is wild to see some of the lines on these games - Jeanty, for example, is -4000 to score a touchdown. For you rookie bettors, that means that you have to bet $4,000 to win $100. It is kind of absurd. He is -1000 to rush for 120+ yards. My play won't really revolve around Jeanty specifically, instead, I'll just capitalize on his production as we take Boise State to win the first half by 14 or more points. I think they will be able to get whatever they want offensively and I'll back Boise State at -13.5 in the first half of the game.  

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