Boise State Can Replicate Outcome From Last Game Against UNLV

UNLV vs. Boise State, 8:00 ET

Can you believe that we are already here? I've mentioned this a few times, but this college football season has been going ridiculously fast. We are already at Championship week with the conferences lined up to see who will win. Sure, we still have the College Football Playoff to look forward to, but this also is one of the biggest games that teams will play all season. UNLV and Boise State square off tonight and I think we can get a win in the first big game - the Mountain West Championship.

UNLV comes into this game with a 10-2 record and they are the underdog of this contest. They've done a pretty good job most of the season of being in command of most of the games. Their two losses this season came at the hands of Syracuse and Boise State. Boise State was the only ranked team that UNLV faced (at least at the time of the game). The home loss to Syracuse does stand out as a bit of a concern considering that they lost it at home. It was an overtime contest, but there are a lot of odd games that have happened this season. The team is pretty well balanced between their running game and passing attack. For the year, Hajj Malik Williams, the UNLV quarterback, is completing about 64% of his passes and averaging about 192 passing yards per game. He has also tossed roughly two touchdown passes per game. One of the better things about Williams is that he protects the ball. He has allowed just four interceptions this season. He did have 179 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also racking up 105 rushing yards and a touchdown. 

UNLV REBELS

Boise State has put together a very nice season and closed out the year on a high note, beating their last five opponents by at least seven points. They've allowed no more than 24 points to a team. They did 30 or more points three times, but they've been much more consistent over the past seven weeks. Boise State's offense is playing rather well, too. Outisde of a game against Wyoming, they have put up at least 28 points in every game this season. Their team has a passing game, but really, no one can stop Ashton Jeanty who has 2,288 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns this season. This is a guy that has been somewhere around -3000 to score a touchdown for most of the season. There was only one game that he was kept out of the endzone and he only had 11 carries in that game, still racking up 127 yards. The only loss that Boise State started this season was against Oregon, currently ranked as the best team in the country.

This game should go to Boise State. The two teams just played each other a few weeks ago and it was also in Boise. In that game, Boise State won 29-24, winning by five points. The spread for this game is now just four points. I think this is a fair line, but I also think Boise State will cover it. Their defense has been good enough, and should keep UNLV limited. I'll back Boise State at -4 in this one and do have a strong lean to the under as both teams will take their time with their possessions, making sure they don't make mistakes with a lot on the line.