Birds Have A Chance, But Both Pitchers Should Be Great

Cardinals vs. Braves, 7:15 ET

I was able to capture a win for us on the diamond last night, not something that I've been able to say nearly as often as I would've liked to this season. Still plenty of season to turn it around and the same can be said for both of the teams in this game. Everyone loves getting off to a good start, but that isn't always the way things go. The Cardinals and Braves square off tonight and both could use a jolt to improve their tough season to this point. 

The Cardinals are really bad on the road, I mean like Colorado Rockies bad on the road. St. Louis overall is 9-13 for the season, and they are just 1-9 on the road this season. The Cardinals just lost four straight to the Mets, scoring nine total runs in four games. The pitching could be looked at as acceptable, but even that was a bit of a struggle, allowing 19 runs in those games. The worst one for them had to be the walk-off home run to Franisco Lindor that might still be in the air. The thing is that St. Louis needs to put this behind them and find a way to start winning on the road. To try and do that, they put Erick Fedde on the hill. He's been pretty good for the season with a 1-2 record and a 3.43 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. In reality he has only had one bad start. He has three quality starts, 18 innings and two earned runs. His one bad start did come on the road against the Red Sox when he allowed six earned runs in three innings. Braves hitters have absolutely destroyed Fedde with a .426 average in 68 at-bats. 

Apr 9, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Erick Fedde (12) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Braves haven't been great, but they seem like they are starting to turn things around. They are coming off of a sweep themselves, but this time they were on the good side of the sweep. The Braves are 6-2 at home this season, but are just 8-13 overall. They also had some drama that may or may not be important over how the Braves manager manages players differently. Not really sure what it means long term for the team, but certainly interesting to see it on a team that is underperforming to this point in the season. Trying to block out the noise is Spencer Schwellenbach. For the season, he is just 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He is coming off of his worst start of the season, though where he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings. Essentially, him and Fedde are having very similar seasons with three quality starts and one bad one. Cardinals hitters are also pretty successful against Schwellenbach, hitting .400 against him. 

The Braves really shouldn't be -200 favorites against anyone at this point, however, the Cardinals are also not playing really well and obviously bad on the road so the line does make some sense. I think over the course of the year, Schwellenbach will be better. I think this game is likely to go under the total. Both pitchers are throwing rather well with one exception. I do think the Cardinals have the better value though. Back the under. 

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