Birds Will Beat Down Beantown Boys

Red Sox vs. Orioles, 6:35 ET

The Dodgers had three runs in the second inning yesterday and for some reason I said to myself - this should easily cash. "This" referring to my bet I placed yesterday, and shared with all of you, of the Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs. They scored one more run the rest of the game and ended up losing the game, and my bet. Tough break, I suppose, but that's what happens when you're running a bit cold. You run into games that you see correctly and the outcome doesn't match up with what you were thinking. I'm hoping to heat up here as the Red Sox take on the Orioles in the entertaining battle of the AL East.

The Red Sox were supposed to have a down year. I keep writing that sentence and then looking at the standings and being somewhat dumbfounded that they are this successful. They are currently sitting at 63-56 for the season, with about a 38% chance of making the playoffs - which to me seems rather low. They are 7.5 games back of the Yankees in the division, so that route looks fairly blocked for them. However, in the Wild Card, they are two games back of the Royals who own the last Wild Card spot. I would think their chances of making the playoffs would be closer to 50% or higher, but I guess things like schedule are factored in that I'm not. Either way, this is why we play the games - because we need to see who is going to actually perform as opposed to just what numbers suggest. Speaking of numbers and suggestions, Nick Pivetta is on the hill today for the Red Sox and he as been solid on the road for Boston. Overall, the right-hander has a 4.44 ERA, but on the road it improves to 3.76. A quick glance at his game log shows that he is either throwing a quality start or pulled somewhere around four innings - but not always because he is pitching poorly. In 18 outings this year, he has just six quality starts. He has also made seven starts where he has pitched into, but not completed, five innings or fewer. He hasn't faced the Orioles this year, but they have a pretty good track record against him with 26 hits in 93 tries.

Aug 4, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Orioles and Yankees will be battling for the AL East division crown probably until near the last week of the season. They are currently a half-game back of the Yankees, but it really shouldn't matter all that much as they have a five game lead for the first Wild Card spot. What I am getting at here is the Orioles will make the playoffs either as a division winner or a Wild Card winner, that's really the only mystery left for the team. Either way, I wouldn't want to have to face this team. They have a ton of young talent that can do basically everything. They hit for power, average, field well, run the bases well, and their pitching staff has an ace. Outside of the ace, there are a few questions. One of the more reliable starters on the team is today's hurler who was acquired from another AL East team at the deadline. Zach Eflin makes his fourth start for the Orioles and is looking to make his fourth consecutive quality start for the team. In the first three outings, he has allowed a total of five runs in 19.1 innings. He is also coming off of his best start (against his former team) where he went seven innings, allowed no runs on four hits, and struck out seven. He did face the Red Sox earlier in the year and went five innings, allowing three runs in a 5-3 Tampa win. Overall, Red Sox hitters are hitting .237 against him. 

I don't really have a problem with Nick Pivetta or how he has performed. The Red Sox have a good bullpen as well, so that shouldn't be a concern for the team. However, it is hard to fade Eflin right now with the way he is pitching. I'm thinking the Orioles should at least be winning through five innings. Afterall, we've seen that Pivetta can be very inconsistent. I'll back the birds here at -135 through five. 

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