Bills Won't Shake 'Chiefs Curse' Sunday In NFL Divisional Round
The 3-seed Kansas City Chiefs at 2-seed Buffalo Bills is a modern day version of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Bills QB Josh Allen is Manning and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes represents Brady. Their NFL divisional round meeting Sunday will be the 7th installment of this rivalry.
If you ask most NFL pundits, Mahomes and Allen are the 1st- and 2nd-best quarterbacks in the league. Chiefs-Bills are 3-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their 1st six games. All three of Buffalo's wins are in the regular season, including a 20-17 victory in Kansas City in Week 14.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen hug after an NFL Week 14 game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But, the Chiefs knocked the Bills out of the playoffs twice. KC beat Buffalo 38-24 in Arrowhead in the 2021 NFL divisional round. Then the Chiefs stunned the Bills 42-36 in OT in the 2022 NFL divisional round in one of the greatest games in recent memory.
Both of those playoff meetings were in KC. Buffalo hosts this time around because it rallied back from out of the postseason picture to clinch the 2-seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills did so with a 5-game win streak to end their regular season.
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Buffalo extended its winning streak to six after a 31-17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday in NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. Kansas City also handled business by destroying the Miami Dolphins 26-7 this past Saturday.
Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney runs into the end zone after catching a lateral pass from Kansas City TE Travis Kelce vs. the Buffalo Bills in Arrowhead. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
This leads me to the 1st pro-Chiefs factor in this betting breakdown: KC's rest edge. The Chiefs hosted the Bills in their 1st meeting this season but Buffalo was coming off of a bye. That's part of the reason the Bills were -1.5 favorites in Arrowhead that week.
However, despite having a rest and prep disadvantage, Kansas City won the box score vs. Buffalo in Week 14. The Chiefs out-gained the Bills 5.6-4.5 in yards per play and more red-zone trips. Buffalo got a little lucky when Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney had a would-be go-ahead TD negated with an offsides penalty with 1:22 remaining.
Also, the Bills have cluster injuries on defense and it's short week. Four starters missed practice Wednesday for the Bills including LBs Baylon Spector and Terrel Bernard, WR Gabe Davis, and CB Christian Benford.
Buffalo's weak run defense gives something for Mahomes and KC head coach Andy Reid something to exploit. The Bills are 28th in yards per rush allowed and the Chiefs have a strong interior offensive line.
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Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco was injured for the 1st Chiefs-Bills meeting this season. He also missed their regular-season game last year. According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Pacheco is 8th in rushing yards over expectation per carry. I'm betting KC gives Pacheco a lot of touches Sunday.
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco, TE Travis Kelce, and QB Patrick Mahomes stand on the field before the AFC Wild Card Playoffs vs. the Miami Dolphins in Kansas City. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Furthermore, for the 1st time in this newish rivalry, the Chiefs have a better defense. Kansas City CB Trent McDuffie is Pro Football Focus's (PFF) highest-graded defensive player for either team. Chiefs pass rusher Chris Jones is the best defender in this game. Buffalo's three starting interior offensive linemen have a below-average grade at PFF.
Lastly, Kansas City has the better quarterback, coach, and defense. More importantly, the Chiefs are getting points, which has been profitable for KC backers since 2019. Mahomes is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog.