Bills Will Beat Cowboys In America's Game Of NFL Week 15
I know I'm not the only one who still believes the Buffalo Bills (7-6) can sneak into the playoffs and win Super Bowl LVII. Buffalo is -2 favorites when host the Dallas Cowboys (10-3) Sunday in Week 15. This is despite Dallas's current 5-game winning streak and Dak Prescott being the favorite to win NFL MVP.
The 1st reason the Bills are favorites Sunday is they are clearly better than their record. Buffalo ranks 6th or better in net yards per play, net expected points added per play, and point differential. All of the Bills' losses this season are by six or fewer points.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles with Chiefs LB Leo Chenal chasing him at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
Aside from the Philadelphia Eagles last week, the Cowboys have bullied bad teams lately. Four of their last five games have been at home. Their only road game during that stretch was against the now 1-12 Carolina Panthers.
While, on paper, a victory over the Eagles is impressive, Philly has noticeably struggled recently. The Eagles have been out-gained by their opponents in six consecutive games. Otherwise, the biggest criticism of Dallas is how poorly it performs vs. tough competition.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Since hiring head coach Mike McCarthy in 2020, the Cowboys are 5-10 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. non-divisional foes with a winning record. They got dump-trucked 42-10 by the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 8.
I'm skeptical about Dallas's offense traveling. The Cowboys are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home. Yet, they are just 3-3 SU and ATS on the road. Dallas averages roughly one yard less per play in away games. Prescott's QB Rating falls from 122.5 at home to 84.5 on the road.
Furthermore, is there a tougher place to play for a dome team with an explosive passing attack than Buffalo? It's December so it could be cold. Even if there isn't winter weather conditions, it's a slower track than AT&T Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott in action vs. the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
There isn't much separating these teams but the Bills are better on early downs and in the red zone. Buffalo is 4th in net early-down success rate (EDSR) and 5th in red zone scoring differential. The Cowboys are 15th in EDSR differential and 22nd in net red zone scoring.
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 15 Gambling Powwow with David Troy and Scott Martin
"EDSR" is a predictive football stat because the whole playbook is available on 1st and 2nd downs. Given the firepower of both offenses, whoever gets it done in the red zone will win this game.
Finally, I don't really care what the sportsbooks say, Bills QB Josh Allen is better than Prescott. Both have elite weapons but Allen has a stronger arm and is more dangerous when he scrambles. And, like Dak, Allen plays a lot better at home.