Bills Don't Cover Big Spreads And Steelers Are Riding Mike Tomlin Voodoo
A crazy lake effect snow storm forced New York Governor Kathy Hochul to postpone the Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Super Wild Card game until Monday. The weather is still going to suck. But, it won't be nearly as bad as Sunday. With that in mind, the "Bills -10" is more enticing. Theoretically, bad weather favors the Steelers because it could slow down Buffalo's explosive offense.
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Both teams clinched playoff berths on the final day of the NFL regular season. The Tennessee Titans upsetting the Jacksonville Jaguars January 7th guaranteed both a spot. The Bills earned a 2-seed by beating the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football in Week 18.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen throws the ball during an NFL Week 18 game vs. the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Buffalo is one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and Pittsburgh is lucky to be in the tournament. In fact, the Bills have the 3rd-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+600) at DraftKings Sportsbook and the Steelers are dead-last (+12000).
However, Pittsburgh has over-performed expectations all season whereas Buffalo has underwhelmed. The Steelers are 10-7 against the spread (ATS) and the Bills are 7-10 ATS. Pittsburgh has been doing it with "smoke and mirrors". While Buffalo continuously shot itself in the foot all season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills odds (PointsBet)
The Steelers are on their 3rd quarterback and 2nd go-around with backup QB Mason Rudolph. Since becoming Pittsburgh's starter in Week 16, Rudolph has played well. He is 3-0 with a 118.0 QB Rating. Granted, Rudolph is just a "game manager" but so are the other Steelers quarterbacks.
He is playing so well that Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is starting Rudolph over a now-healthy 1st-string QB Kenny Pickett under the "hot-hand theory". That said, Rudolph probably isn't winning, or covering, this game for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin calms his team down from the sidelines during the Ravens game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Instead, the Steelers are going to need some of that "Mike Tomlin voodoo" they've gotten all season. Again, they are 10-7 ATS despite having the worst EPA/play and yard per play differential out of the 14 playoff teams.
Per TeamRankings.com, Pittsburgh is 2nd in luck rating this season and Buffalo is 26th. The Steelers have a +11 turnover margin and 9-2 in one-score games. Plus, Bills QB Josh Allen has 18 INTs on just 21 "turnover worthy plays", according to Pro Football Focus. I.e. Allen is getting unlucky.
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Also, there's a profitable betting system for these NFL wild card games that applies to Steelers-Bills. This is something I've picked up from years of betting football and I don't have the record in front of me so you'll have to take my word for it.
But, teams that rank at least 10 spots ahead of their opponents in strength of schedule cover the spread at a high rate in the wild card round. Per Aaron Schatz (inventor of the famous NFL stat "DVOA"), the Steelers played the 2nd-hardest strength this season and the Bills, 26th.
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and RB Najee Harris celebrate after a touchdown vs. the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Pittsburgh has a strength-on-weakness edge over Buffalo on the ground. The Steelers are 8th in rushing EPA/play and 5th in rushing success rate since Week 9. They are facing a Bills team that allows 4.6 yards per rush, which ranks 28th.
Pittsburgh RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are an elite duo. Harris rushed for 1,035 yards this season with 8 TDs and Warren added 1,154 all-purpose yards (784 rushing and 370 receiving). Both like to run off-tackle, which is where Buffalo's run defense is most vulnerable.
Essentially, the "Bills -10" (down to -8.5) is too many points when you consider Allen's terrible turnover luck and Mike Tomlin's voodoo. Rudolph isn't Pittsburgh's long-term answer at quarterback, but he can do enough for the Steelers to cover this spread.