Betting Thursday's 'NBA on TNT' Action: Heat-Mavs, Celtics-Nuggets

Excuse me while I put on my clown makeup and give out my "best bets" for the NBA Thursday. I'm not going to lie, I'm getting crushed in the NBA this season. It went from bad to worse yesterday with a 0-2 performance. What's even lamer was that both of my picks got "closing line value" and were covering for three quarters before blowing it in the 4th quarter. 

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Honestly, given my epic losing streak, I'd sit Thursday out if it weren't for this intriguing NBA on TNT doubleheader. That said, this could be my final hurrah betting on the NBA until the playoffs. March Madness is right around the corner. MLB's opening day is later this month. There are good PGA Tour events to bet. Frankly, I'd rather bet on the Oscars than the NBA at this point. 

NBA Thursday Betting Card 

• The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers (-120), 7 p.m. ET 

The Timberwolves beat the Pacers 127-109 in their 1st meeting this season Dec. 16th. However, the T-Wolves were at home, the Pacers were missing All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton, and on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B). Haliburton leads Indiana in on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Indy is 2-9 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the 2nd of a B2B. 

Indiana is the best 3-point shooting in the NBA and teams usually shoot better at home. For example, the Pacers are +3.3 made 3-pointers per game in their home gym. They are top-five in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr). "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. 

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton passes the ball against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

More importantly, T-Wolves All-Star PF Karl-Anthony Towns will be out indefinitely after tearing his meniscus. Minnesota's half-court offense isn’t good enough to keep up with the Pacers on the road. KAT is Minnesota's 2nd-leading scorer at 22.1 points per game and its best shooter at 50.6% from the field. 

Lastly, this is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market at the time of writing. According to Pregame.com, more money is on the Pacers whereas more bets are on the Timberwolves. Typically, the cash column represents professional action and the bets column is the public. 

Bet 1.2u on Indiana's moneyline (-120) at DraftKings. Give me the Pacers up to -3. 

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Miami Heat (+4.5) at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Dallas’s defense has been a joke lately. Post-All-Star break, the Mavs are 30th in defensive half-court efficiency and 27th in overall defensive efficiency, according to CTG. Miami is scoring more points in half-court action and ranks 8th defensively in the 2nd-half of the season. Plus, the Mavs live and die by the 3-pointer. 

Over the last six games, the Heat lead the NBA in defensive wide-open 3PAr. Dallas is 28th in defensive wide-open 3PAr over that span. Miami has a low offensive wide-open 3PAr but it’s knocking down 43.2% of those open threes. The Heat have three starters shooting better than 40.0% from deep, such as Jimmy Butler, SG Duncan Robinson, and stretch-4 Nikola Jovic. 

Furthermore, Miami has a massive edge in coaching because head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the business. Spo will be able to devise ways to attack Dallas’s awful defense. I’m hoping Spoelstra has Butler and big Bam Adebayo attacking the paint. 

Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler attacks the paint on Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving at Miami-Dade Arena. (Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, this is a "better spot" for the Heat. Miami 13-7 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog with a +6.3 spread differential. Whereas Dallas is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS with a -8.6 spread differential as home favorites vs. teams with a winning record. 

The Heat have a strength-on-weakness edge at drawing fouls. Miami has a +3.0 differential in free-throw attempts per game and the Mavericks are +0.6. Finally, nearly two-thirds of the bets are on the Mavs but the money is split 50/50 at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com. 

Bet 1.02u on the Heat +4.5 (-102) at DraftKings. The Heat are bet-able down to +3.5. 

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Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (-108), 10 p.m. ET

There is good two-way betting action here. Neither team has a rest edge. Both are coming off losses but playing their best basketball currently. This game looks like it'll be an NBA Finals preview. My point is this handicap boils down to answering the question: "Who do you think is the better team right now"? 

Well, I'm going with the defending champs at home. The Nuggets won their 1st six games out of the All-Star break. They beat the Celtics 102-100 in Boston Jan. 19th. Denver out-performed Boston in three of the "four factors" and Nikola Jokić scored a game-high 34 points on 14-of-22 shooting with 12 rebounds, and 9 assists. 

Denver Nuggets All-Star Nikola Jokić operates out of the post vs. Boston Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis at the TD Garden. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Nuggets have a more reliable half-court offense because the Celtics shoot too many threes. Granted, Boston is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. Yet, Denver is 2nd in defensive wide-open 3PAr over the last six games. Jokić can bail the Nuggets out while Celtics All-Stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum rely on hitting difficult shots.

With that in mind, I'm not convinced Boston's interior defense can hold up against Denver. Celtics big Kristaps Porzingis is long and athletic but lacks the strength to hang down low with Jokić. Not only does Boston have to worry about Jokić but Nuggets big-bodied PF Aaron Gordon can do some damage in the paint too. Ultimately, the Nuggets will win this game because they have the best player in the world. 

Bet 1.08u on Denver's moneyline (-108) at FanDuel. The Nuggets are playable up to -2. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.