Betting the 2021 MLB All-Star Game

A fun (and pretty profitable, if you played everything) evening from the Home Run Derby. Alonso put on a show, and Shohei Ohtani did well after really stumbling out of the gate. Aside from that, we cash Story in the first round, and if you played both Soto and Alonso, you were up five units. Let’s see if we can make some money on the All-Star Game tonight. 

All-Star Games are wildly unpredictable. With that being said, I want to make sure you know to be cautious with these bets. Don’t wager a lot, just have fun. 

The posted total for tonight’s game is 11. In four of the last five All-Star Games, the totals haven’t even come close to 11 runs. However, those games are not taking place at Coors Field. The last Coors Field All-Star Game ended in a 13-8 victory for the American League. The starters for the game should each get two at-bats, and I’d expect about 5 runs to be scored between the two teams. I think the game is an under in the first five innings (under 5.5 -102) and an over for the game. My reasoning really is that most of the “big name” AL pitchers are sitting out, and arguably the two best NL pitchers (deGrom and Gausman) are sitting out as well. 

If the game comes down to relievers pitching though, the NL should be damn near unhittable. I have more faith in the NL relievers than any group of players in the entire game. So, this also comes down to how the teams get used. Not all of these pitchers can play in the game, it just isn’t realistic. Not exactly sure how we will see the pitching changes work tonight. To me, that strengthens the idea that we can get the total over the game because the best “one inning” guys probably will not all pitch. 

As far as a side for the game, this is a bit harder for me to choose, but I think I’m taking the National League for a similar reason that I think the over hits. I think they have better players participating and should position themselves to win the game. I’m playing the National League to win the game (-116), despite the fact that the American League has won the last seven games and the AL is 25-6-1 in the last 32 All-Star Games. 

There are no lines for MVP at the moment and might not be before the game, but if I had to pick someone, I’d take someone who is likely to get a couple of hits such as Nick Castellanos or a guy from the bench like Manny Machado or someone similar. If the AL wins, it will likely either be Ohtani (because the media loves him and he could hit and have a good inning or two pitching) or someone like Nelson Cruz or Jose Ramirez because they hit a go-ahead home run.