Betting Super Bowl 2023 Chiefs-Eagles: Spread, Total, MVP
You've probably heard it all at this point in regards to people breaking down the Super Bowl 2023 matchup between the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have been here and done that. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni haven't but many Eagles have.
However, OutKick gave me my very own sports betting podcast and you can bet your a** that I'm going to get some action down on Super Bowl LVII.
Super Bowl 2023 Betting Board
The Side (ML and ATS)
There's a false narrative going around Super Bowl 2023 that, outside of QB, the Eagles have the much better roster. I'll concede Philadelphia has more talent. Especially when you consider the injuries to KC's WR corp.
But, Mahomes and Reid have two weeks to scheme up a game plan knowing their wideouts are banged-up. Not to mention future Hall-of-Fame TE Travis Kelce is the deadliest offensive weapon in this game.
Chiefs' Travis Kelce celebrates his TD with Patrick Mahomes vs. the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Also, there have been 13 Super Bowls since 2000 between teams separated by 10 spots in Jeff Sagarin's strength of schedule (SoS) rankings, per VSIN's Adam Burke. The teams with the more difficult SoS 10-3 overall and 8-5 ATS.
I figured the Chiefs would be the public side due to the Mahomes and Reid factors but that's not the case. Per VSIN, the action is split on the ML and roughly 70% of the ATS action is on the Eagles.
Furthermore, Philadelphia's has an obvious defensive weakness for Kansas City to exploit. The Eagles are 24th in yards per rush allowed on defense and defensive line yards per snap, according to Football Outsiders.
Reid and Mahomes talk prior to a preseason game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
If Mahomes and Co. can stay ahead of schedule, they should be able to convert third- and fourth-and-shorts. Philly's defensive line has the worst power ranking in the NFL and is 26th in stuff rate.
Finally, the Chiefs should get a boost for Super Bowl experience. We've never seen Hurts make a big-time throw in an important game. This whole season has been smooth sailing for Hurts.
Mahomes has four game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. Hurts has one fourth-quarter comeback (vs. the Jeff Saturday-led Colts) and two game-winning drives.
If their backs are against the wall, I know Mahomes and the Chiefs can figure out a way to win. If the Eagles have to play from behind, I'm not confident they can win.
BET: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Kansas City Chiefs' odds vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 2023 from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
Total
The bottom line is the public likes betting Overs so there's almost always value in taking the Under in the Super Bowl. Per VSIN, more than 55% of the money is on the Over and by kickoff I think it'll be closer to 75%.
There have been four straight Unders in the Super Bowl including both of the Chiefs' recent appearances. Since 2002, the Super Bowl is 8-12 Over/Under (O/U) with a -2.6 O/U margin. The 15 Super Bowls with a total of 50 or higher are 6-9 O/U.
Again, Philadelphia's defense gets the credit it deserves whereas Kansas City's defense flies under the radar. The Eagles have the most sacks in the NFL. Yet the Chiefs were 2nd in sacks and 5th in pressure rate.
Eagles pass rusher Haason Reddick celebrates with DT Fletcher Cox and LB T.J. Edwards after recovering a fumble in the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
KC's secondary is young but talented and All-Pro DT Chris Jones is the best defensive player for either team. Also, there are reasons to think both QBs could struggle Sunday.
Philly's' CBs have a big edge over the KC's banged-up WRs. All three of KC's projected starting WRs have a "below-average" to "poor" matchup vs. Philadelphia's secondary, according to Pro Football Focus.
More importantly, both QBs are dinged up. Mahomes sprained his ankle in the AFC Divisional Round. Hurts hasn't looked the same since injuring his shoulder in Week 15. These injuries have swung the balance of this matchup in favor of the defenses.
BET: UNDER 51 in Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl 2023 at DraftKings
Odds for the UNDER in Super Bowl 2023 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 a.m. ET.
Super Bowl 2023 MVP
I'm going to keep this short and sweet because I'm only sprinkling on a long-shot in this market. Mahomes is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP at +120 and Hurts is right behind him at +125.
But, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has a reasonable path to winning the Super Bowl MVP. Mahomes' ankle combined with KC's mediocre WRs and Philly's subpar rush defense could mean Pacheco gets a lot of touches.
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco runs for a TD during the AFC Championship vs. the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Pacheco is +4000 to win Super Bowl MVP, which has a 2.4% implied win probability. There's a world where the Chiefs win 30-17 and Pacheco scores three rushing and receiving TDs. Obviously, the chances are slim but not slimmer than 2.4%.
'SPRINKLE': Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl MVP 2023 (+4000) at DraftKings
Other Super Bowl Handicaps
Podcast: Super Bowl 2023 Betting Powwow featuring Dan Zaksheske
GAMBLING ON GOOFY SUPER BOWL 2023 NOVELTY PROPS INCLUDING THE GATORADE BATH
SUPER BOWL 2023 TOUCHDOWN PROPS: CHIEFS VS. EAGLES, INCLUDING HURTS ANYTIME TD
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RECEIVING PROPS: BACK GOEDERT, FADE TONEY
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RUSHING PROPS TO BET
RANDOM SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES GAME PROPS
PATRICK MAHOMES WILL GO UNDER HIS PASSING YARDS PROP
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