Betting Preview For Home Run Derby

Home Run Derby, 8:00 ET

There aren't too many All-Star competitions that are as cool as the Home Run Derby. The NBA Dunk Contest has had maybe one or two good iterations over the past decade. Even the 3-point contest has lost some of the excitement. The NFL has by far the worst contests, and the new format might be even worse. The Derby is the best though. It is the most fun to watch, the only issue I have is the length and all of the breaks - but I understand the purpose of those too. Hopefully, we can take a victory down on it no matter how long the contest lasts.

I don't normally look for just a favorite in these contests, but I really do think this is Pete Alonso's whole purpose in the MLB. He has proven twice now that he has the stamina and the ability to take the win. In my opinion, his opening round is a really tough matchup. Julio Rodriguez was destroying the ball last year and he hit 81 homers. And, he is in his home park so of all players, he should be familiar with the batter's eye more than anyone. This is a tough first matchup, but I think Alonso's only goal every year might be to win this contest. This is easily the hardest matchup to pick in my opinion.

Mookie Betts is taking on Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the opening round as well. I think this is a bit more clear over who will win. I think it is more natural for Guerrero to win this contest than it will be for Betts to win. Betts clearly has pop in his bat, but his swing isn't one that you typically associate with a home run hitter. There isn't much that Betts can't do, so counting him out altogether is foolish. However, Guerrero is my pick in this bracket even if he is the lower seed. He is a huge favorite to win, and then has to face Alonso or Rodriguez, so it could be a tough battle there. I won't be playing this one, but I do think that Guerrero easily wins.

Julio Rodriguez will be in the comfort of his home stadium in the Home Run Derby. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

On the other side of the bracket, Luis Robert Jr. takes on Adley Rutschman. I don't think this part will be much of a challenge for Robert, but we will see. I kind of compare this situation to the Betts vs. Guerrero one. I think the swings alone favor Robert more than Rutschman. The ball may be able to carry better for Robert when he gets under it. Rutschman seems like he has more of a line drive swing - which can work in this competition, but can also backfire on you quickly.

This probably isn't all that surprising, but one of the tougher matchups is the 4 vs. 5 seed. Adolis Garcia from the Rangers certainly can hit the ball out of the park with ease and he is familiar with T-Mobile Park, where this is played. He's got a good power stroke and will be in the running for the longest home run of the night. Facing him is Randy Arozarena. He does seem like a bit more of a pure hitter than his opponent. He has seen higher pressure than this though and that could play into his favor. I'd take Garcia in this, but it wouldn't be with much confidence.

Those are just the first-round matchups, so who do I think will actually win? I have a few thoughts on this, the right side of the bracket (Alonso, Rodriguez, Betts, and Guerrero) should win, but what if they get too tired battling each other in the first two rounds? That's a real possibility to me. Julio Rodriguez has the best value at +550, but I think Luis Robert Jr. has the easiest path to get to the finals.

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