Betting The National League At The Mid-Season

The All-Star Break is behind us. Teams have played around 100 games in the season. We are at the mid-point of July which means we have the rest of the month, August, and September to finalize the playoff fate of everyone. This is a good time to examine the market and see what might be available for us to explore in terms of future betting. I'll be quite honest and open about this: I'm not great at baseball futures. However, those are typically bets I place at the beginning of the season instead of ones that happen during the season. It hasn't been all bad. I have a nice ticket for the Brewers to win the division, though the Cardinals could spoil that. Let's take a look at what we could consider betting on for the National League in the "second-half" of the MLB season.

Chicago Cubs under 79.5 wins +100

I'm a believer the Cubs are going to sell pieces at the deadline. If they come out hot after the All-Star Break, they might add to their team, or keep the roster current. They played some nice baseball before the break, winning six of eight games and eight of 11. They also started the season with a nice 19-12 run. Those two stretches were the ends of a sandwich that was filled with a 20-36 stretch. So, which Cubs team is real? The one that put together two nice stretches, or the one that had two months worth of a slump. They do not have an easy second-half schedule. Virtually all of the teams in the NL Central have hopes of making the playoffs and are unlikely to sell at the trade deadline. The remainder of the schedule has just about 17 games against teams that are unlikely to compete for the playoffs. I'll back the Cubs to go under their win total. If they choose to sell off pieces at the deadline, I think this bet is even better. 

Pittsburgh Pirates over 78.5 wins -120

The NL Central has five teams that are in the division, and all five could potentially fight for a playoff spot. As of today, the Reds and Cubs are 3 and 3.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot, respectively. Obviously, if the Central somehow took all three Wild Card spots and the division crown, at least one team would still not make the playoffs. However, I think the Pirates should be able to find a way to remain competitive this season. Pittsburgh has been reinvigorated with Paul Skenes coming up. The team is playing exactly .500 baseball and it seems like they can keep that pace the remainder of the season. They don't have an easy schedule either, but as long as they are in the playoff race (currently just 1.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot) they should keep all players active. I'm going to back the Pirates to go over the 78.5 wins. 

May 11, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch in his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Padres over 82.5 wins -120

If you put your hand on a hot stove, you know not to do it again. For whatever reason with sports betting, even after you get burned you tend to put it behind you and bet on teams again. That's exactly the case with the San Diego Padres. I've been burned by this team over and over again, but I have hope for them this season. The Padres are just one game over .500 right now, but they are in a good position to eclipse the total. Why? Mostly because I think they are getting healthy at the right time. Xander Bogaerts is back in the lineup, Yu Darvish should be back any time now, and Joe Musgrove should return from his injury stint too. The team is getting healthy at the right time and they are starting to play good baseball. Their offense has been solid this season and I think the pitching should get better. I'd like to see them add to their bullpen, but I will back the over here and and hope they can continue to improve as they've done over the last month. I also like them to make the playoffs at +145. 

To Make the Playoffs

There are a lot of teams in this category that you can bet on or against. If the playoffs started today, the division winners would be the Phillies, Dodgers, and Brewers. I don't think that will change much with maybe the exception of the Cardinals potentially overtaking the Brewers. So assume that is four teams in the playoffs. We know the Braves will also make the playoffs. That leaves us with one spot for the playoffs. Right now, the Mets would be in it. I don't think their success will hold up and the books don't either at -160. The Cardinals are +130 to make the playoffs - grab this right now. I do think they will make it. I've mentioned liking the Padres to make the playoffs already. The final choice might be the Diamondbacks who are also playing good baseball right now. They should be getting back Merrill Kelly as well. They are also plus money to make the playoffs. 

Of all these best, I'd say the Cardinals at +130 to make the playoffs is my favorite overall. Even more than any of the win total bets. 

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