Betting Both NY Basketball Teams In NBA Sunday
I snuck in a couple of NBA bets Saturday on Twitter or X or whatever. Don't worry, you guys didn't miss much. I split my two bets Saturday and lost 10 cents on the dollar thanks to the vig.
There are eight games in the Association on Sunday but my two looks are in the same state. In fact, I'm backing both home teams in the Suns-Knicks and Bulls-Nets in my ...
NBA Best Bets for Sunday
Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks (-3), 6 p.m. ET tip-off
There are so many things to like about the Knicks on Sunday. First, Kevin Durant is "questionable" and Bradley Beal is out. KD has a +6.5 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Meaning, the Suns score 6.5 more points per 100 possessions when Durant is in the game. I.e. KD's absence Sunday is a big deal.
Second, New York is going to crush Phoenix on the glass. The Knicks grab 7.4 more rebounds per game than their opponents, which is first in the NBA, and the Suns are 22nd in defensive rebounding rate in non-garbage time, per CTG.
Third, NYK are +4.5 in Basketball Reference's "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule and Phoenix is +0.7 in SRS. When you add in home-court advantage, it's easy to get to the Knicks -5 in this game.
New York Knicks wing RJ Barrett drives to the hoop against Los Angeles Clippers wing Paul George at Madison Square Garden. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
The New York City nightlife and the Madison Square Garden energy certainly benefit the home team. Since MSG is the "Mecca of basketball," visiting stars ball out in New York. However, NYK have a legit Big 3 with PF Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett, and Jalen Brunson that can hold down home court.
Barrett leads the Knicks with a +16.4 on/off net rating, according to CTG. After a slow start, Randle is starting to perform like his All-NBA-self. Brunson is averaging a career-best 24.2 points per game with a career-high 46.9% 3-point shooting.
Finally, there's more betting action on the Suns in the consensus market, per Pregame.com but the sharper sportsbooks (Betcris, Pinnacle Sportsbook, and Bookmaker) still make NYK a -3.5 favorite. This indicates the Knicks are the sharp side here.
My prediction: Knicks 115, Suns 108
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
The bottom line is the Nets are a pretty good team and the Bulls are not. Brooklyn is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS), which is the second-best cover rate in the NBA. Whereas Chicago is 5-11-1 ATS and that's tied for the worst.
DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and that website says the Nets have a +0.2 net rating and the Bulls have a -3.2 net rating. I'd give Brooklyn a 2.5-point bump for home-court since Chicago is 1-6 straight up (SU) on the road with a -10.9 scoring margin.
The Nets are playing in the second of a back-to-back after beating the Miami Heat 112-97 at home Saturday. So there's a valid concern about Brooklyn's stamina. However, the Nets have a deep roster and Brooklyn wing Mikal Bridges is an ironman.
Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges drives to the basket on Bulls SG Alex Caruso at United Center in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Also, I like how the Nets match up with the Bulls. Brooklyn has a lot of long, athletic wings that are good on-ball defenders to guard Chicago wings Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.
Furthermore, the Nets are sixth in 3-point attempt rate, 4th in 3-point shooting, and have lineups where all five men can shoot 3-pointers. While the Bulls are 27th in 3-point attempts allowed and dead-last in shot selection allowed, per CTG.
Lastly, there's sharp line movement heading towards Brooklyn in the betting market. The Nets have gone from -3.5 up to -4.5 as of 2 p.m. ET Sunday afternoon. This is despite nearly three-fourths of the action being on Chicago, according to Pregame.com.