Betting Baseball: Pitching Will Rule In Rangers At Rays AL Wild Card Series Game 1
A battle between two AL wild-card seeds begins the MLB's 1st day of playoff baseball Tuesday. The 5-seed Texas Rangers head to Tropicana Field to play the 4-seed Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their best-of-three series.
Neither one of Texas's Cy Young-winning aces will pitch for the Rangers this postseason. Both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer suffered season-ending injuries. Instead, Texas turns to LHP Jordan Montgomery 10-11, 3.20 ERA) whom they acquired around the trade deadline.
Montgomery is a crafty lefty who relies on offspeed and breaking stuff and command. The New York Yankees sent Montgomery to St. Louis last summer before the Cardinals offloaded him this season. In his 11 outings for the Rangers, Montgomery has eight "quality starts" (6 or more innings pitched with 3 or fewer runs allowed).
Tampa Bay Rays righty Tyler Glasnow fires one in vs. the Orioles at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Tampa RHP Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA) takes the ball Tuesday. Glasnow missed most of 2022 with Tommy John surgery. The injury-plagued, hard-throwing righty has some of the best stuff in MLB. Per Statcast, Glasnow ranks in the 95th percentile in whiff rate and 97th percentile in K%.
Glasnow beat the Rangers 8-3 at home June 9th. He pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 ER, on 1 H (1 HR) and 3 BB with 6 K. But, Texas won the season series with Tampa 4-2. Montgomery pitched vs. the Rays while on the Yankees but this is 1st meeting with Tampa since June 2022.
Rangers at Rays Game 1 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series from PointsBet.
Texas has the better lineup. Rangers SS Corey Seager is one of the leaders for "non-Shohei Ohtani AL MVPs". Texas RF Adolis Garcia has the 2nd-most HRs in the AL behind Ohtani (39). Rangers 2B Marcus Semien is 2nd to Ohtani for WAR in the AL.
However, pitching rules in fall baseball and Tampa's pitching staff is one of the best in MLB. Tampa's bullpen struggled in the 1st half of the season but turned it around once getting healthier. Post-All-Star break, the Rays' bullpen ranked 1st in xFIP in the majors.
The opposite is true of the Rangers. Their bullpen ERA was tied for 25th in the 2nd-half of the season and were 21st in xFIP. That said, Texas has elite arms at the top of its bullpen (setup men Jose Leclerc and Will Smith and closer Aroldis Chapman).
Rangers closer Aroldis Chapman pitches vs. the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Also, PointsBet, and most of the other legal U.S. sportsbooks for that matter, is dealing a better total than the sharper offshore oddsmakers. Pinnacle Sportsbook, Betcris, and Bookmaker make the Under pricier than the Over.
These are considered sharper sportsbooks because they accept the largest bets in the market. Well, they are steering their whale clientele towards the Over in Rangers-Rays Game 1. Plus, Pregame.com reports that more than 70% of the action is on the Over yet the total hasn't budged off the opener.
There are some nuts to throw on the handicap sundae. The Rangers are 10-16 Over/Under (O/U) as road underdogs vs. right-handed starters and 5-11-1 O/U in road games that start in the early afternoon. Finally, Tropicana Field is pitcher-friendly and ranks 22nd in park factor, according to Statcast.
My prediction: Rays 3, Rangers 2