Betting The American League After All-Star Break

Betting Major League Baseball has been a profitable endeavor for me for multiple years. Betting futures hasn't always gone well, in fact, I have reduced my unit size significantly on them. Waiting an entire baseball season to cash a winner ties up a lot of money as well. Sure, there are awards that can be worth the wait, but the win totals are usually a bit harder for me to stomach waiting on. Now we have a chance to bet with just about 60 games, and maybe 75 days remaining in the regular season. The biggest issue now is betting before the trade deadline closes as we will have some moving pieces. This is as much of a reward potential as risk since you could bet on someone making a splash and getting over their win total. Now, let's take a look at what we should consider betting in the American League. 

To Make the Playoffs

I ended my National League article with a To Make the Playoffs section, so let's start this one with it. Switch things up a bit. Right now, if the season ended, we would have the Mariners, Orioles, and Guardians as playoff teams via division winners. For the Wild Card, the Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox would be in. Unlike the National League where there are six teams all within 3.5 games of the final spot, the American League is a bit more solidified with just two teams within 3.5 games of the final spot. Those two teams on the outside looking in right now are the Royals and the Astros. I'm not convinced the Twins and Royals both make the playoffs. I think it will be one or the other. The Royals are +140 to make the playoffs, and the Twins are not listed on DraftKings for some reason, but I assume they would be plus money to NOT make the playoffs. I would say the Royals have a bit of value to make the playoffs. I think their pitching staff could see some second-half regression, but they still are probably better than the Twins pitching staff. 

The Astros are the most interesting of the teams to me. Right now they are -160 to make the playoffs, and +135 to not. This is mostly due to them chasing down the Mariners and being just a game behind them. Unlike a lot of teams, the harder way to make the playoffs might be the Wild Card. I would say it is a bit safer to bet the Mariners to miss, even with their pitching staff, at +120. It wouldn't surprise me if they try and trade for some offense, but what they have right now won't cut it. So, essentially, you are picking either the Twins or Royals, and Astros or Mariners. The Rangers could still make it, potentially, but they are seven back in the Wild Card race, and five in the division. At +500 to make the playoffs, and a team that is getting healthier, you do have some value there. 

Finally, the Red Sox are a team worth playing. They are +100 and sit in the final spot of the Wild Card race. The problem is they play the Orioles, Yankees, and Rays regularly which puts them up against playoff caliber teams. Their pitching has been great, but can it sustain itself the entire season? If you think they make a trade or two to bolster the team, bet them now at +100. If you think they stand still, or trade anyone away, bet them now to miss at -120. Me, I lean toward them making the playoffs. 

Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal delivers a pitch vs. the Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Tigers under 79.5 wins -105

I don't really understand why the over is juiced here. It is highly unlikely that the team will make the playoffs, and even a playoff run seems hard to imagine at this point. Yes, they have improved, but they have the Guardians, Twins, and Royals all likely to try and improve their team. The Tigers are probably going to trade pieces away at the deadline and hope they can improve for next season. I don't see them winning 80 games. They are under .500 currently at 47-50. They would have to go 33-32 in the second half to cash this bet. Give me the under. 

Red Sox over 85.5 wins -120 

I briefly mentioned the Red Sox above, and like this as a safer option because you don't need to worry about any of the Wild Card teams chasing them. Right now the Red Sox are 53-42, putting them 11 games over .500. If you do the math, 86 wins would mean 76 losses. So they can actually go below .500 by one game in the second-half of the season and still cash this bet. I don't see them dropping significantly in the second half of the year when they are likely to add to the team and make a playoff push. 

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