Bet UNDER Jaguars Travis Etienne Rushing Yards Vs. Titans Saturday

The battle for the AFC South between the Tennessee Titans (7-9) at the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) is the second of the NFL's Week 18 Saturday doubleheader. Kickoff at TIAA Bank Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.

There are a lot of ways Titans-Jaguars could play out. But, one of the ways I'm ruling out is Jacksonville being able to establish the run. Let's profit off Tennessee's immaculate rushing defense and ...

BET UNDER JAGURS RB TRAVIS ETIENNE 65.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Etienne has rushed for at least 86 yards in seven of his 11 starts in 2022 including three straight so 65.5 feels cheap. But, the Titans haven't allowed a RB to go over 65 yards since Giants RB Saquon Barkley in Week 1.

Tennessee’s defense ranks second in the NFL in both yards per rush (3.4) and yards per game (80.5). The Titans lead the league in both defensive rushing EPA/play and defensive rushing success rate. Etienne rushed for 32 yards on 17 carries in Week 14 vs. the Titans.

Their defensive line has the fourth-biggest mismatch in their favor in Week 18 vs. the Jaguars, per Pro Football Focus. Jacksonville’s offensive line has the fifth-worst run-block win rate, according to ESPN.

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. runs the ball during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Also, the Titans are allowing just 84.2 rushing yards per game in AFC South games since 2020. Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel knows his division and is going to make Jacksonville’s offensive one-dimensional.

Vrabel also has a well-rested and prepped defense. Five defensive starters missed last week’s game for Tennessee including two of their best defensive linemen in DT Jeffrey Simmons and OLB Denico Autry.

Furthermore, it just makes sense Vrabel forces Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to beat them. For the record, I never sold my Lawrence stock and think he's a legit franchise quarterback.

That said, Titans-Jaguars is essentially a playoff game and quarterbacks making their first career playoff start typically struggle. I'm not saying Lawrence will but I'm saying Vrabel will test him. The best way to do that is by taking away Etienne.

BET: UNDER 65.5 rushing yards for Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (-115) at DraftKings

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne's rushing yards player prop at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Jan. 7th at 2 p.m. ET.