BET Twins Take Control Of 2023 ALDS Vs. Astros In Game 3
Game 3 of the 2023 AL Division Series between the 2-seed Houston Astros (1-1) and 3-seed Minnesota Twins (1-1) heads to the Twin Cities Tuesday. First pitch at Target Field in Minneapolis is 4:07 p.m. ET.
Minnesota bounced-back from a 6-4 Game 1 loss Saturday to even the series by beating Houston 6-2 Sunday. Twins RHP Pablo Lopez carved up the Astros' hitters Sunday, throwing 7-scoreless innings with 7 Ks and 1 BB.
Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez pitches during Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
This is a spot where Minnesota playing in the wild-card round helps the Twins. They send out All-Star righty Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA) Tuesday. Before 2022 (MLB's 1st season with the wild-card series), Minnesota would've used Gray in Games 1 or 2.
Gray threw 5-scoreless innings with a 6/2 K/BB rate in a 2-0 win vs. the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of the 2023 AL Wild Card series. Gray has two no-decisions in two starts against the Astros this year. He allowed just 4 ERs in 13.0 innings with a 16/4 K/BB rate in those outings.
Houston RHP Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) gets the nod for Game 2. This is the Javier's 1st start in the 2023 playoffs. Javier has been low-key amazing in the playoffs for the Astros. He has a 4-1 career postseason record with a 2.20 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Game 3
Betting odds for the Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS Tuesday.
The Astros are going to need "Playoff Javier" to show up because he had a subpar regular season. His 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2023 are career worsts. In road games this season, Javier has a 5.17 ERA (3.71 home ERA), 2.2 K/BB rate (3.4 K/BB home rate) and 11 more home runs (18-7).
Gray pitches better in the Twin Cities and has been lights out post-All-Star break. His ERA (2.92-2.67), WHIP (1.19-1.11), and K/BB rate (4.0-2.8) is all better at home. In the 2nd-half of the year, Gray has a 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 5.1 K/BB rate.
Twins righty Sonny Gray celebrates during the game against the Houston Astros at Target Field in Minneapolis. (David Berding/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Furthermore, since September, Minnesota's bullpen is 7th in xFIP ("expected fielding independent pitching) and 3rd in K-BB%, per FanGraphs. While Houston's is 14th in xFIP. In MLB handicapping, xFIP is more predictive than ERA.
Finally, the Twins' hitters out-rank the Astros against right-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs. Since last month, Minnesota leads MLB in wRC+ and is 2nd in WAR and wOBA and 7th in hard-hit rate.
My prediction: Twins 6, Astros 2