Bet The Totals In Both 2023 NBA Play-In Games For Tuesday
The 4th-annual 2023 NBA Postseason Play-In tournament better be good. They owe us that much after mailing in the regular season. Tuesday is the 7th- vs. 8th-place doubleheader followed by the 9th- vs. 10th-place doubleheader Wednesday.
The NBA 2023 playoff tournament bracket courtesy of NBA.com.
Whoever wins Tuesday will clinch the 7-seed for the playoffs in their respective conferences. Whereas the losers of Tuesday's games will have to meet the winners from Wednesday to determine the 8-seeds in the East and West.
NBA East Play-In: Atlanta Hawks (8) at Miami Heat (7)
Hawks-Heat Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds for the NBA play-in game between Hawks-Heat from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, April 10th at 4 p.m. ET.
My favorite look in this play-in is UNDER 228 (-110), down to 226.5. Miami turns games into rock-fights and a majority of the action is on the Over but the total has crept down from a 228.5-point opener.
The Heat know what the Hawks like to do and Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA. The Heat are 2nd in paint PPG allowed and 4th in defensive wide-open 3-point attempt rate.
Furthermore, the Hawks like to run a lot of pick-and-roll (PnR) action through Trae Young. But, Miami is 8th in defensive efficiency vs. PnR action through ball handlers.
Miami, and Bam Adebayo in particular, does a great job defending Trae. In their four regular season meetings, Young shot 35.6% from the field (20.8% from 3) vs. the Heat.
Bam Adebayo defends Trae Young in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Playoffs at FTX Arena in Miami. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Also, since the beginning of last season, including their 1st-round playoff series, the Hawks-Heat are 4-9 O/U with a -4.2 O/U margin. Atlanta is averaging just 105.5 points per game (PPG) in those meetings.
The Hawks went Under the total in all five playoff games last season including both of their play-in games. Atlanta's O/U margin is -11.6 PPG over that span. The Heat were 6-12 O/U in last season’s playoffs with a -5.1 O/U margin.
Lastly, there should be a lot of long, one-and-done possessions since both teams don't turnover the ball and Miami plays at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA.
BET: UNDER 226.5 in Hawks-Heat at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 225.5
Odds for the UNDER in Hawks-Heat from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, April 11th at 11:30 a.m. ET.
NBA West Play-In: Minnesota Timberwolves (8) at Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Timberwolves-Lakers Odds at DraftKings
Odds for the NBA play-in game between Timberwolves-Lakers from DraftKings as of Monday, April 10th at 4 p.m. ET.
Typically, you want to bet Unders in primetime sporting events because the public loves to bet Over and the public doesn't win in this racket. Yet styles make fights and Minnesota is going to turn this into an up-and-down affair.
The Lakers are 3rd in pace and the T-Wolves are 7th and Minnesota picks up the pace when starting C Rudy Gobert is off the floor. Well, Gobert won't play at all in this play-in game after that brouhaha with teammate Kyle Anderson Sunday.
Not only will the Timberwolves be without their defensive anchor (Gobert) but they also lost their 2nd-best defensive player, SF Jaden McDaniels. He fractured his hand punching a wall in same game Gobert punched Anderson.
Anthony Davis tore up Minnesota and Gobert on March 31, scoring 38 points on 15-of-26 shooting. McDaniels would be tasked with defending LeBron James.
AD and LeBron should eat Tuesday without Gobert and McDaniels out there. The Timberwolves will have to pick up the pace to keep up with the Lakers.
More importantly, both teams' shot profiles could equal a high-scoring affair. LAL attempts the 2nd-highest volume of field goals at the rim and Minnesota is 5th, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Anthony Davis dunks the ball on the Timberwolves at Target Center in Minneapolis. (Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Lakers are 6th in paint PPG and the T-Wolves are 7th. LAL is 23rd in paint PPG allowed and Minnesota's paint defense will be weakened sans Gobert. When teams attack the paint they tend to get to the foul line often.
Both teams' offenses improved when they upgraded point guards. The Lakers got PG D'Angelo Russell and the T-Wolves acquired PG Mike Conley at the NBA trade deadline.
LAL scores 9.6 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Russell is on the floor, per CTG. Minnesota adds 6.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Conley is in the game.
BET: OVER 232.5 in Timberwolves-Lakers at DraftKings, up to 233.5
Odds for the OVER in Lakers-Timberwolves from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, April 11th at 11:30 a.m. ET.