Bet The Titans Over Falcons Sunday In A Profitable 'Mike Vrabel' Spot

This is one of the situations you bet the Tennessee Titans (2-4) and their head coach Mike Vrabel. As of Wednesday, the Titans are an expensive +3 (-115) at PointsBet when they host the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) Sunday in NFL Week 8.

Tennessee had a bye last week and lost 24-16 to the Baltimore Ravens in London two weeks ago. But, since 2019, the Titans are 9-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) after a loss. Off of a bye, Tennessee is 4-0 SU and ATS with a +19.3 SU margin over that span.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans in Week 8

Odds for the Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 8 as of Thursday, October 26th at 12:30 a.m. ET.

Granted, things are a little different in this spot. Seemingly, the Titans are trade-deadline sellers, which is Halloween. They already sent Pro Bowl S Kevin Byard to the Philadelphia Eagles. There are rumors Derrick Henry could be on his way out as well.

Adding injury to insult, 1st-string Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill could miss Week 8 after spraining his ankle in London. Vrabel is being coy about who will replace Tannehill. Reportedly, the Titans are prepping 2nd-year QB Malik Willis and rookie QB Will Levis to play Sunday.

TENNESSEE TITANS CONTINUE CHECKING BOXES OFF THE SEASON-IS-A-MESS LIST WHICH INVOLVES QBS, RB AND TRADES

However, last season, Tennessee was in a similar scenario, except against a better team. The best team too. Tannehill missed Weeks 7 and 8 last year with an injury and Willis replaced him as the starter.

The Titans beat the Houston Texans in Week 7. The following week they covered in a 20-17 overtime loss on the road vs. the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, Tennessee led 17-9 entering the 4th quarter.

Tennessee Titans QB Malik Willis scrambles against the Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Them covering against the Chiefs doesn't make sense ever after looking at the box score. Kansas City gained 20 more 1st-downs than Tennessee (29-9), possessed the ball for 15:05 longer, and Willis threw for 80 yards.

All of this is a long-winded way of me saying: Regardless of the situation, Vrabel gets his guys ready to play. Plus, Atlanta's head coach, Arthur Smith, is Vrabel's old offensive coordinator. So we got a "Master vs. Protege" matchup.

In this case, give me Master Vrabel. Especially, considering the Titans are getting points at home vs. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Ridder as the 33rd-best quarterback out of 35 qualifying QBs.

Last week, I bet Atlanta ATS at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it was terrifying. The Falcons should've rolled the Bucs. But, two Ridder fumbles at the GOAL-LINE kept Tampa Bay alive. Atlanta needed a game-winning FG as time expired by PK Younghoe Koo.

I've heard some people excuse Ridder's fumbles. They say "turnovers are flukey" and "Atlanta's underlying offensive metrics are impressive". But, I heavily disagree with this argument. Turnovers are a product of Ridder's poor play.

Over their last five games, the Falcons are averaging just 13.2 points per game and have 12 turnovers. They are 1-4 ATS during this stretch. Ridder needs his ground game to bail him out. That's unlikely to happen Sunday though.

Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson gets a strip-sack fumble against Atlanta Falcons QB Desmond at Ford Field in Detroit. (Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tennessee's defense ranks 7th in yards per rush. Vrabel typically stacks the box to take away his opponent's ground game. Also, the Falcons are 23rd in red-zone TD rate while the Titans are 3rd in red-zone TD rate allowed.

Finally, Tennessee's roster isn't that bad. For now, the Titans have two good running backs in King Henry and rookie RB Tyjae Spears. Four of their five starting offensive linemen are above-average, per PFF. And Tennessee WR DeAndre Hopkins still has a little left in the tank.

My prediction: Titans 21, Falcons 16

Bet 1.15 units (1 unit = $100) on the Tennessee Titans +3 (-115) vs. the Falcons in Week 8 at PointsBet.