BET: Texans-Ravens Divisional Round Battle Will Be Heated Rematch, But Don't Expect Many Points
A Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens rematch from Week 1 kicks off the 2024 NFL divisional round Saturday. Baltimore beat Houston 25-9 in their season opener. For the rematch, the Ravens are -9.5 favorites across the board as of Thursday night and the total is 43.5.
Baltimore clinched a bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with the best record in the NFL. Houston won the AFC South in the final week of the regular season before smashing the Cleveland Browns 45-14 in NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson throws a pass while being pressured by Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre in NFL Week 1 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
This leads me to the first reason for BETTING UNDER 43.5 (-110) in Texans-Ravens (playable down to 42). The last thing bettors remember of these teams are their offenses going berserk. Typically, it's wise to follow recent results when betting the NFL.
Houston hung 45 last week on one of the best defenses in the NFL. While Baltimore earned the 1-seed by beating the brakes off the Miami Dolphins 56-19 in Week 17. Texans QB C.J. Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons ever. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is going to win the 2023 NFL MVP.
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Also, Baltimore's defense is the best in the NFL and Houston's defense is good at stopping the run, which is where the Ravens are most dangerous. For instance, Baltimore allows the fewest points per game and the Texans rank second in yards per rush allowed.
Furthermore, both defenses are good in high-leverage situations. The Ravens are eighth in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and second in red-zone scoring allowed. Houston's defense is seventh on 3rd down and 13th in the red zone.
Baltimore Ravens pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney pressures Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud at M&T Bank Stadium. (Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, both pass rushes get after the quarterback and Lamar and Stroud eat too many sacks. According to ESPN, the Texans are third in pass-rush win rate and the Ravens are ninth. Baltimore is 24th in sack rate allowed and Houston is 22nd.
Since both the Ravens and Texans have elite secondaries, there could be drive-ending coverage sacks Saturday. Houston’s starting three cornerbacks have better grades at their respective positions than Baltimore’s top-three wideouts, per Pro Football Focus.
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For what it's worth, both defenses balled in the first Texans-Ravens game this season. Houston had 3.7 yards per play (YPP), Baltimore had 4.6 YPP, and the NFL average is 5.3 YPP. Jackson had just 197 total yards: 168 passing yards and 38 rushing. Stroud had a 78.0 QB Rating. Neither Lamar nor C.J. scored a touchdown. They took a combined 9 sacks (five on Stroud and four on Jackson).
Adding to that, Stroud's numbers dip in road games. Stroud has thrown 17 TDs at home to just 6 TDs on the road. His QB Rating falls from 108.3 at home to 91.5 away from Houston. Remember, the Texans lost 15-13 at the Carolina Panthers who have the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But, Stroud doesn't turn the ball over and has the best TD/INT rate in the history of rookie QBs. He didn't throw any interceptions vs. the Ravens in Week 1 and I expect him to take care of the ball this week. However, punts in lieu of turnovers help my UNDER 43.5 (-110) wager.
Lastly, the biggest criticism Lamar faces as a probable two-time NFL MVP is his playoff struggles. He is 1-3 overall and versus the spread in the postseason. On top of that, Baltimore is 0-4 Over/Under (O/U) in the playoffs with a -15.3 O/U differential.