BET Giants-49ers Turns Into A 'Rock-Fight' on Thursday Night Football In NFL Week 3
I'm sitting on the sideline in terms of who I like to win or cover the NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football (TNF) game between the New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0). Even though I'm "recreational-plus" sports bettor, I cannot quit rooting for my childhood football team, the Giants.
Big Blue avoided disaster by rallying from a 20-0 deficit to beat the lowly Arizona Cardinals last week. In Week 1, the Giants got truck-sticked by the Dallas Cowboys 40-0 at home.
The 49ers on the other hand looked like world-beaters in Week 1, crushing the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-7. They held off a feisty LA Rams team for a 30-23 win this past Sunday.
But, I'm not not going to bet the Thursday Night Football game. My looks in this Giants-49ers Week 3 matchup include the total and a couple of player props.
Giants at 49ers Week 3 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 3 from PointsBet.
Per NFL analysts Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl, this Giants-49ers game has the second-slowest pace of any game this week. NYG 2nd-year head coach Brian Daboll plays a slower pace to reduce variance and to make it a coin-flip game.
Furthermore, through the 1st two weeks, San Francisco has the lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is the rare "offensive innovator" nowadays that tries to establish the run.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey rushes vs. the Rams at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
Also, the Giants will be without two offensive linemen Thursday including LT Andrew Thomas, who was one of the highest graded tackles in football last season, and Pro Bowl RB Saquon Barkley.
New York's cluster-injuries on the offensive line will make it next to impossible to run or protect QB Daniel Jones. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), NYG's offensive line has the 2nd-worst run-blocking matchup this week and the 5th-worst in pass protection.
Giants QB Daniel Jones rushes for a TD vs. the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Recently, these TNF games play Under the total. Since 2021, totals in Thursday tilts, which includes Thanksgiving, are 14-25 Over/Under (O/U). Over that span, the 49ers are 4-9 O/U in primetime with a -7.0 O/U margin.
Since the beginning of last season, New York is 1-3 O/U in primetime games with a -3.9 O/U margin and 5-9-1 O/U on the road.
Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market for the total. Per both PFF and Pregame.com, there's more money on the Under but more bets on the Over.
BET a 0.5 unit (u) on UNDER 43.5 (-110) in Giants-49ers
Thursday Night Football Week 3 player props
Typically, for player props, you want to predict a game-script and bet accordingly. Because I see Giants-49ers going Under the total Thursday, I'm hunting for Unders. My gambling strategy for TNF Week 3 is to place 0.5u on the Under and 0.25u on each of the following player props.
49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 230.5 passing yards (-115) at PointBet
The bottom line for this handicap is the Niners ask Purdy to be a game manager and don't even want him throwing it often. Through two weeks, San Francisco's 54 pass attempts rank 28th in the NFL.
Moreover, Purdy has been running lucky on errant throws. Through the first two weeks, Purdy ranks 20th in bad-throw rate. Shanahan perfectly dialed up a couple of shot-plays for Purdy last week and he missed open receivers.
Purdy has passed for 220 or fewer yards in six of his last eight regular-season games dating back to last season. Plus, Purdy's favorite target, 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk, is "questionable" to play in Week 3.
Finally, per PFF, Purdy has the second-highest rate of "turnover worthy plays" vs. pressure. The Giants haven't generated much pressure thus far but have the third-highest blitz rate in the league. Since they don't have the guys to matchup with San Francisco's playmakers, the Giants are going to try and force Purdy into miscues.
Giants WR Darius Slayton UNDER 35.5 receiving yards (-110) at PointBet
According to PFF, Slayton has the 3rd-worst WR-CB matchup in all of Week 3. Slayton will line up against Niners CB Charvarius Ward Thursday. In 2022, Ward was the 6th-highest graded CB out of 118 charted in his 1st season with the 49ers. This season, quarterbacks have a 56.0 QB Rating when targeting Ward.