Bet Broncos As Double-Digit 'Dogs Vs. Chiefs And Hold On For Dear Life
The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) are known to play with their food as big favorites. PointsBet lists the Chiefs -10.5 (-110) when they host the division rival Denver Broncos (1-4) in Week 6 for Thursday Night Football.
KC is just 7-10 against the spread (ATS) as -10.5 favorites in regular season action since 2018, Patrick Mahomes' first season as the starter. Four of those games were vs. Denver and Kansas City is 1-3 ATS in those meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Also, this is a buy-low spot for the Broncos and a sell-high spot for the Chiefs. Last week, Denver lost 31-21 at home to Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Whereas KC won its fourth straight game vs. the Minnesota Vikings and the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS in their last four contests.
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The market is falling into recency bias. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action in the consensus market is on Kansas City -10.5. Legal U.S. sportsbooks are reporting similar betting splits in this Broncos-Chiefs tilt.
Broncos at Chiefs Week 6 odds
Betting odds for the Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 6.
Honestly, fading the market and recency bias are my two biggest angles for backing Denver +10.5 (-110). That said, Travis Kelce left KC's Week 5 game with an injury after rolling his ankle. Kelce missed Kansas City's only loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 1.
Aside from Kelce, Mahomes doesn't have reliable pass catchers or game-breakers. Meaning, the Chiefs' offense could be less potent if Kelce isn't 100%. Granted, that might not matter vs. a Broncos defense that gave up 70 points earlier this year.
However, Denver's offense has been sneaky good this year. If you remove turnovers, the Broncos rank ninth in offensive EPA/play. Plus, Russell Wilson has a 11/2 TD/INT ratio and a 106.1 QB Rating.
Broncos QB Russell Wilson throws a pass vs. the New York Jets at Empower Field At Mile High in Denver, Colorado. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Denver's live offense leaves the backdoor cover open. Especially as double-digit 'dogs. Since 2022, the Broncos are 6-4 ATS as underdogs and 3-1 ATS as underdogs vs. AFC West teams.
Granted, Mahomes is 11-0 in his career vs. the Broncos. But, last season, Denver covered in both losses against the Chiefs and Kansas City won those games by an average final score of 30.5-26.0.
My prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 21