Best 'Chunky' Payout Bets For Every AFC North Team In 2023
The AFC North is the hardest division to handicap this season. It wouldn't be shocking if any of the four AFC North teams came out on top. The odds for these teams reflect how up in the air this division is entering 2023.
Betting odds for the 2023 AFC North via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, August 10th.
Since I prefer to use my NFL bankroll on regular season and playoff action, I'm usually shopping for fat plus-money payouts on futures. With that in mind, none of the options above provide enough value.
It wouldn't be the craziest thing in sports if any of these four teams won the AFC North. It also makes the North my favorite AFC division to shop for longshot odds.
Best bets for AFC North teams in 2023
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (+1100)
Since the NFL is a "quarterback driven league" and Joe Burrow was Pro Football Focus's top-graded QB in 2022, it's insane to fade Cincinnati. By doing so, you're pretty much predicting a Burrow injury. Which isn't a real handicap.
At DraftKings, Burrow has the 2nd-best odds to win the 2023 NFL MVP at +750. Like the AFC North itself, Burrow's MVP odds are just not a fat enough payout. There are too many good QBs in the NFL and Cincy's schedule is too difficult.
That said, I'm still going chalk with my best bet for the Bengals in 2023. Cincinnati WR Ja'Marr Chase is the rightful odds-on favorite to win 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) at +1100.
Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase elevates for the TD catch vs. the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Chase made the Pro Bowl in his 1st two seasons and won the 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. In 2022, Chase played in five fewer games but had more targets, catches and 1st downs converted than his rookie season.
Even if Cincinnati's opponents know Burrow is looking for Chase, they still cannot stop it. Bengals coach Zac Taylor does a good job scheming up ways for Chase to get the ball.
The NFL OPOY is now a "WR award". Three of the last four winners have been wideouts. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson in 2022, Rams WR Cooper Kupp in 2021 and Saints WR Michael Thomas in 2019.
Chase's path to winning the 2023 NFL OPOY is 100+ catches, 1,500+ yards, and 15+ TDs. All of which is doable because Chase is Burrow's favorite target.
LISTEN: Dan Zaksheske and Geoff Clark Break Down The AFC and NFC North On The Latest Episode of “OutKick Bets”
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to win 2023 NFL MVP (+1500)
The Ravens are +235 to win a stacked AFC North in 2023. Those odds aren't nearly as juicy as +1500 for Lamar Jackson to win the NFL MVP. And Baltimore ain't winning the AFC North without Lamar.
Last season, the Ravens were 8-4 with Jackson starting and 2-4 (including the playoffs) without him. In 2021, Baltimore was 7-5 with Lamar under center after he went out with an injury and finished 8-9.
Jackson is 45-16 in his career (est. 2018) and the 2019 NFL MVP. The Ravens were the 1-seed in the 2019 AFC playoffs thanks to a 14-2 regular season. He threw for an NFL-high 36 TDs, ran for 1,206 yards, and added 7 rushing TDs that year.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson celebrates with TE Mark Andrews after a TD vs. the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Lamar's path to the 2023 NFL MVP is 40+ combined TDs and a 12-win season with the Ravens winning the AFC North. Baltimore's front office not only paid Lamar this offseason but improved the offense around him.
Wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor signed with the Ravens this offseason. They drafted WR Zay Flowers with the 23rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Baltimore hired a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, to freshen things up. The Ravens still have a solid backfield (if their running backs can stay healthy) and Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews.
Finally, the Ravens need Lamar to put up points because their defense could take a slight step back. There isn't a lot of depth on Baltimore's defense at the key positions of cornerback and pass rusher.
Pittsburgh Steelers' Mike Tomlin to win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year (+2500)
I'm applying similar logic here as Lamar winning the MVP. If the Steelers win the AFC North, how does Mike Tomlin NOT win Coach of the Year? Pittsburgh has by far the worst QB in the division and is the biggest underdog to win the division.
Also, somehow all of these things are true:
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin looks on against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
Furthermore, there is momentum for Tomlin to win this award coming into this season. The Steelers were expected to finish below-.500 in 2022. Pittsburgh fell to 5-8 before Tomlin worked his magic and the Steelers won four straight to finish 9-8.
Don't get me wrong, Tomlin has talent to work with and I'm a "Steelers QB Kenny Pickett guy". But, Pittsburgh winning the AFC North in 2023 would be Tomlin's Mona Lisa. And if that happens, the media will rally around Tomlin to get him the award he should already have in his trophy case.
Cleveland Browns to win Super Bowl 2023 (+4000) & edge rusher Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+750)
I've already made my cases for the Browns to win the Super Bowl at +4000 (down to +3500 at DraftKings as of August 10th) and Myles Garrett winning 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY).
Obviously, the Browns need QB Deshaun Watson to return to his pre-Cleveland form. Watson was awful after returning from an 11-game suspension in 2022. But, while playing for the Houston Texans, Watson was a bonafide top-five to top-10 QB in the NFL.
I'm buying stock in Watson (as a QB). He is only 27 years old and there's no precedent for an elite QB falling off a cliff before turning 30. The Browns have been a top-10 offense in recent years without a legit starting QB.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson and pass rusher Myles Garrett warm up before the Hall of Fame game vs. the New York Jets at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
Defense on the other hand has been Cleveland's real issue over the past few seasons. Cleveland's front office hired proven defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and signed much-needed depth to its defense this offseason.
Also, Garrett is one of the favorites to win NFL DPOY but he should be. Garrett is PFF's top-graded pass rusher in 2022 and has 16.0 sacks in two straight seasons.
If they improve from a bottom-10 defense to a league-average or better defense then the Browns will be a playoff team. Watson returning to a top-10 NFL quarterback should give some value on Cleveland's +3500 odds to win Super Bowl 2023.