'Locks' For Week 1's Marquee Games: Clemson Vs. Georgia, Notre Dame At Texas A&M, USC Vs. LSU

If it weren't for gambling, college football would serve little purpose in my life. As a native upstate New Yorker, college football was never a thing. I didn't start watching the non-New Year's Bowl Games until I went to St. John's University in 2004-08 and my roommate was a rabid Notre Dame fan. 

But, that was when USC was running things with Pete Carroll, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinhart. My college buddy was such an annoying Notre Dame fan that I had to root for the Trojans. Now that I live in Long Beach, California, I sincerely root for USC rather than as a troll.

My point is I'm not going to front as if I'm some "college football expert" or even a fan. As Marshawn Lynch once said, I'm just here so (OutKick) I won't get fined. That, plus the NFL is right around the corner, so I'm using college football to sharpen my football handicapping tools. 

Because I'm an honest guy, I'll be updating my betting record weekly. I'll give my confidence level for each pick with "units" (u). Say your "unit" is $100, if my bet is "1.1u", I'm going on the record with a $110 wager. With all that out of the way, it's time to start picking winners in Week 1 of college football. 

Week 1 College Football Betting Card 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET Friday, August 30. 

• 1.15u on Clemson +12.5 (-115) vs. Georgia at FanDuel.
• 1.05u on Texas A&M -3 (-105) vs. Notre Dame at DraftKings.
• 1.1u on UNDER 64.5 (-110) in USC-LSU at FanDuel.
• 0.58u on USC +4.5 (-115) vs. LSU at FanDuel.

#14 Clemson vs. #1 Georgia Saturday, noon ET 

Everyone is selling stock on Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, saying sh*t like that game has passed him by now that college football is in the "NIL and transfer portal" era. But, ole Dabo has a few more College Football Playoff runs left in him. 

Swinney's 13-year streak of winning 10+ games was snapped when Clemson went 9-4 in 2023. The Tigers started 4-4 before rattling off five straight wins, including upsets over then #12 Notre Dame and #22 North Carolina and a Gator Bowl victory vs. Kentucky. 

Clemson junior QB Cade Klubnik had a mediocre first full season as a starter: 63.0% completion, 2,844 passing yards, 19 TDs, and 9 interceptions. But, Klubnik is a 5-star recruit with a ton of talent. I like that Swinney didn’t look for a new quarterback in the transfer portal and Klubnik is sticking it out with Clemson. 

Sometimes it takes a few years for these highly-touted high school recruits to get used to the college game. Plus, Klubnik is surrounded by fellow four- and five-star recruits. Per 247Sports.com, Clemson has the fifth-most talented team in the nation. The Tigers have 20 four- or five-recruits in their starting lineup. 

Clemson Tigers QB Cade Klubnik celebrates with teammates after beating the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. (Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports)

Georgia junior QB Carson Beck is the second betting choice to win the 2024 Heisman at DraftKings. Beck’s 2023 output: 72.4% completion, 3,941 passing yards, 24 TDs, and 6 interceptions. And even though it's "reload not rebuild" at UGA, it did lose a bunch of talent from last year's squad. 

Bulldogs RBs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, who combined for 1,706 rushing yards and 27 TDs, are no longer with the program. They might be without transfer RB Trevor Etienne, who might serve a one-game suspension for a DUI this summer. UGA lost three of its four best pass catchers from last year, including TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey to the NFL. 

"Trench play" is the most predictive thing in football, and the Tigers are one of the few teams in the country that compete with the Bulldogs in the trenches. Steele ranks Clemson's offensive line ninth nationally and its defensive line is 19th. 

#7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Aggies first-year head coach Mike Elko retained most of the talent former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher recruited. The Aggies return 18 starters this season and 48 lettermen compared to 30 lettermen leaving, per Steele. They are seventh in 247Sports.com’s talent composite rankings and Notre Dame is 10th. 

Texas A&M five-star redshirt sophomore QB Conner Weigman is still in College Station. Weigman's first two years in college football were cut short by injuries. But, in his nine games played, Weigman has 16 TD passes and 2 interceptions and has +3000 odds at DraftKings to win the 2024-25 Heisman. 

Texas A&M Aggies QB Conner Weigman drops back to pass vs. the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field in College Station. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Notre Dame senior transfer QB Riley Leonard played at Duke under Elko. So, Elko should know Leonard’s strengths and weaknesses. Plus, Elko was Texas A&M’s defensive coordinator (DC) from 2018-21. The Aggies gave up fewer points per game (PPG) in Elko’s four seasons as DC. They were 47th in PPG allowed in 2018, 39th in 2019, 28th in 2020, and 3rd in 2021. 

Leonard had an injury-plagued 2023, but his numbers were worse than the year prior. His completion rate (63.8-57.6%), yards per pass (7.6-6.7), and pass rating (141.1-116.0) fell year over year. Granted, Leonard plays with more talent at Notre Dame than Duke. That said, Notre Dame only has 15 returning starters and lost 38 lettermen vs. 32 returning lettermen. 

#23 USC vs. #13 LSU Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET 

UNDER 64.5 Handicap 

The UNDER 64.5 makes sense for so many reasons. Firstly, according to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the action is on the Over, and we know the public loves to bet Overs, especially in primetime games. In 2023, LSU was 110th in yards allowed per game (424.7) and USC was 114th (432.8). 

My hunch is the public assumes the defenses will suck again in 2024. USC replaced former DC Alex Grinch with former UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn, whose Bruins held the Trojans to a season-low 20 points last year. 

The Trojans went Over the total in 10 of their 13 games last season by an average of 10.2 points per game (41.8-34.4 PPG). Meanwhile, LSU went Over the total in 12 of its 13 games by 11.5 points (45.5-28.0 PPG). 

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a penalty against the California Golden Bears. (Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports)

Both teams lost Heisman-winning QBs to the NFL. Former Trojans QB Caleb Williams won the 2022 Heisman and went first in the 2024 NFL Draft. Former Tigers QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman last year and was drafted second behind Williams. LSU and USC lost their two most productive rushers and receivers from last year’s teams too.

Former Tigers WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. went in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Former Trojans WRs Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice also went to the NFL. Daniels led LSU in rushing yards (1,252) and TD runs (10). Nabers and Thomas combined for 2,746 receiving yards and 31 TD catches in 2023. 

USC +4.5 Handicap

I have more faith in USC head coach Lincoln Riley building his offense quicker than Kelly. Riley is a quarterback whisperer, who’s coached three Heisman-winning quarterbacks and No. 1 overall picks, such as Baker Mayfield (2018), Kyler Murray (2019), and Williams (2022). 

Trojans QB Miller Moss lit up Louisville like a Christmas tree in the 2023 Holiday Bowl. Moss completed 67.2% of his passes for 372 yards with 6 TDs. Plus, Southern California has the fifth-best WR corp in the country, per Steele, and maybe the most explosive receiver in college football, WR Zachariah Branch. 

Lastly, since the SEC is the best conference in college football, USC's defense was an embarrassment last year, and this is a primetime game, the public will be all over LSU. This gives us a "fade the public" angle. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college football 2024-25 betting record via X all season.