A Strikeout Bet For Shohei Ohtani's 2025 Pitching Debut In Padres-Dodgers Monday
'Showtime' takes the mound for the first time in Los Angeles.
It's rare to have a "must-see" MLB game in the middle of June. Yet, three-time MVP Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the first time since 2023 in the San Diego Padres (39-31) at Los Angeles Dodgers (43-29) series opener at 10:10 p.m. ET Monday is "must-see" TV. This is Shohei's first start for the Dodgers. Ohtani is the undisputed greatest baseball player ever if he pitches and hits.
Shohei had a 38-19 record for the Los Angeles Angels from 2018-23. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.31 Fielding Independent Pitching with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. So, if Ohtani never picked up a bat, he'd still be a perennial Cy Young candidate, barring health. Again, he's the best baseball player ever, which I wish wasn't true as a lifelong New York Yankees fan.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are -157 moneyline favorites at the time of writing and the Padres are +128 ‘dogs. The total is 9 with an Over of -115 and Under of -105. Shohei will likely be on a pitch count and won't be eligible for a win. In fact, this will essentially be a "bullpen day" for the Dodgers with Ohtani only pitching one or two innings.
But, Shohei's notable pitching props are 1.5 strikeouts (Over +105, Under -140) and 0.5 walks (Over +125, Under -180). Based on his 11.4 K/9 career average, Ohtani should strike out 2.5 Padres if he pitches two innings Monday. Per Statcast, Showtime has a 30.8% K-rate in 52 career plate appearances vs. current San Diego hitters.
He mowed down five Padres on the fourth of July in 2023, including former San Diego All-Star Juan Soto twice, who has the best eye in baseball. That's neither here nor there since that was almost two years ago and Soto has taken his talents to Flushing, Queens. However, it does indicate how nasty Shohei's stuff can be.
Finally, call me a "baseball romantic" (how can you not be), but I'm betting that Ohtani hits the ground running and goes OVER 1.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. the Padres. Shohei was third in Stuff+ among starters with 400+ innings pitched from 2018-23, per FanGraphs, and will be dealing Monday.
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